Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Abstract

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

Assessing the global threat from Zika virus

“…There is wide agreement that much of the world’s tropical and sub-tropical regions are at risk for ZIKV spread, including significant portions of the Americas, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Indian sub-continent, as well as many Pacific islands and Northern Australia. These maps differ notably in the extent of risk projected in the Southeastern USA and inland areas of South America and Africa, with Carlson and colleagues suggesting a more limited range (107), particularly in the continental USA, than Messina et al and Samy et al (108, 109). These maps are important attempts to refine estimates of ZIKV’s global range beyond those based solely on the distribution of dengue or Aedes mosquitoes; but, as noted by the authors, are based on limited evidence, and should be refined as we learn more about ZIKV.…”

“…These maps have been constructed around combinations of environment, vector abundance and socio-economic factors (105–109). There is wide agreement that much of the world’s tropical and sub-tropical regions are at risk for ZIKV spread, including significant portions of the Americas, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Indian sub-continent, as well as many Pacific islands and Northern Australia.…”

Spatial distribution and spread potential of sixteenLeptospiraserovars in a subtropical region of Brazil

“…ENM explores geographic and ecological patterns of vectors, host and pathogens to inform about its potential distribution (Peterson, ). This approach has shown effectiveness under diverse applications to fundamental ecological questions such as areas at risk of disease infection (Machado, Weiblen, & Escobar, ), likely pathogen spillover to humans (Peterson, Martínez‐Campos, Nakazawa, & Martínez‐Meyer, ; Samy, Thomas, Wahed, Cohoon, & Peterson, ) and environmental factors linked to infectious diseases (Jia & Joyner, ; Sallam et al, ). Thus, ENM has proven to be a powerful approach to reconstruct the likely factors shaping infectious diseases distributions.…”

Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

“…The current predicted pattern of temperature suitability based on mean monthly temperatures (Figure 1) reproduces the known or projected distributions of Aedes-borne viruses like dengue [41], chikungunya [30], and Zika [10,43,44] well. For both Ae.…”