Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil

Ferreira, Henrique dos Santos; Nóbrega, Ranyére Silva; Brito, Pedro Vinícius da Silva; Farias, Jéssica Pires; Amorim, Jaime Henrique; Moreira, Elvis Bergue Mariz; Méndez, Erick Carvalho; Luiz, Wilson Barros

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…During 2015 and at the beginning of 2019 there were warm periods related to oceanatmosphere temperature [47]. These results are in line with previous studies that found evidence that ENSO is associated with dengue outbreaks [48,49]. Considering the number of dengue cases that occurred in 2015 and 2019, the ENSO phenomenon is an important factor to be considered in any early warning system.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015–2019

Michael

Rodrigues

Morban³

et al. 2023

Trop Med Health

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Dengue has broadened its global distribution substantially in the past two decades, and many endemic areas are experiencing increases in incidence. The Dominican Republic recently experienced its two largest outbreaks to date with 16,836 reported cases in 2015 and 20,123 reported cases in 2019. With continued increases in dengue transmission, developing tools to better prepare healthcare systems and mosquito control agencies is of critical importance. Before such tools can be developed, however, we must first better understand potential drivers of dengue transmission. To that end, we focus in this paper on determining relationships between climate variables and dengue transmission with an emphasis on eight provinces and the capital city of the Dominican Republic in the period 2015–2019. We present summary statistics for dengue cases, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in this period, and we conduct an analysis of correlated lags between climate variables and dengue cases as well as correlated lags among dengue cases in each of the nine locations. We find that the southwestern province of Barahona had the largest dengue incidence in both 2015 and 2019. Among all climate variables considered, lags between relative humidity variables and dengue cases were the most frequently correlated. We found that most locations had significant correlations with cases in other locations at lags of zero weeks. These results can be used to improve predictive models of dengue transmission in the country.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015–2019

Michael

Rodrigues

Morban³

et al. 2023

Trop Med Health

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“…Thus, intense El Niño conditions and associated droughts seem to be an early indicator that appropriate conditions exist for epidemic transmission of arboviruses the following year in Puerto Rico. Ferreira et al (2022) issued recommendations to intensify vector and other arbovirus control mechanisms as early as El Niño is detected in northeastern Brazil. Several studies have shown that warm El Niño conditions precede dengue epidemics by several months (Anyamba et al 2019; Kovats et al 2003, Tipayamongkholgul et al 2009,Colón-González et al 2013; Vicenti-Gonzalez et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico

Barrera

Acevedo

Amador

et al. 2023

Journal of Medical Entomology

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We investigated the effects of interannual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on local weather, Aedes aegypti populations, and combined cases of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in 2 communities with mass mosquito trapping and 2 communities without mosquito control in southern Puerto Rico (2013–2019). Gravid adult Ae. aegypti populations were monitored weekly using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps (AGO traps). Managing Ae. aegypti populations was done using 3 AGO traps per home in most homes. There were drought conditions in 2014–2015 concurrent with the emergence of a strong El Niño (2014–2016), wetter conditions during La Niña (2016–2018), a major hurricane (2017), and a weaker El Niño (2018–2019). The main factor explaining differences in Ae. aegypti abundance across sites was mass trapping. Populations of Ae. aegypti reached maximum seasonal values during the wetter and warmer months of the year when arbovirus epidemics occurred. El Niño was significantly associated with severe droughts that did not impact the populations of Ae. aegypti. Arbovirus cases at the municipality level were positively correlated with lagged values (5–12 mo.) of the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI), droughts, and abundance of Ae. aegypti. The onset of strong El Niño conditions in Puerto Rico may be useful as an early warning signal for arboviral epidemics in areas where the abundance of Ae. aegypti exceeds the mosquito density threshold value.

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“Measuring the health and fiscal outcomes of solid waste management operations by intergovernmental arrangements: The case of public consortia in Brazil”

Nonato Cattani,

Pereira Pontes,

Camargo Botassio

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil

Cited by 8 publications

References 63 publications

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015–2019

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015–2019

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico

“Measuring the health and fiscal outcomes of solid waste management operations by intergovernmental arrangements: The case of public consortia in Brazil”

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