Worldwide COVID-19 spreading explained: traveling numbers as a primary driver for the pandemic

Abstract

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the distribution of cases worldwide followed no clear biogeographic, climatic, or cultural trend. Conversely, the internationally busiest cities in all countries tended to be the hardest hit, suggesting a basic, mathematically neutral pattern of the new coronavirus early dissemination. We tested whether the number of flight passengers per time and the number of international frontiers could explain the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide by a stepwise regression. Analysis were taken by 22 May 2020, a period when one would claim that early patterns of the pandemic establishment were still detectable, despite of community transmission in various places. The number of passengers arriving in a country and the number of international borders explained significantly 49% of the variance in the distribution of the number of cases of COVID-19, and number of passengers explained significantly 14.2% of data variance for cases per million inhabitants. Ecological neutral theory may explain a considerable part of the early distribution of SARS-CoV-2 and should be taken into consideration to define preventive international actions before a next pandemic.

From Spanish Flu to Syndemic COVID-19: long-standing sanitarian vulnerability of Manaus, warnings from the Brazilian rainforest gateway

“…For several reasons, the world failed to refrain the spreading of SARS-CoV-2, and, in Brazil it followed the most expected neutral pattern (i.e., it followed the most used routes and spread with no contention towards the whole country, Ribeiro et al 2020b). Antiscientifi c discourse and misleading actions prevented any control of the disease arrival and its subsequent spreading in Brazil, as well as delayed and undermined control after community transmission was in place (Fraser 2020).…”

Experience With Pretravel Testing for SARS-CoV-2 at an Academic Medical Center

“…Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major impacts on travel within and between countries, as international travel has been a significant driver of the pandemic. [1][2][3][4] In order to limit the spread of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), 5 many countries and local regions have instituted travel bans and restrictions. 3,6,7 The emergence of variant strains of SARS-CoV-2, some associated with increased risk of transmission, have added new urgency to efforts to limit global spread of the virus.…”

“…10,11 International travel presents a particular challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to variability in restrictions between countries that may change over time. 3,4,12,13 Travelers run the risk of not being able to reach their final destination and may additionally end up temporarily stranded in another country.…”

Successive pandemic waves with more virulent strains, and the effects of vaccination for SARS-CoV-2

“…This illness, called COVID-19, is caused by a SARS class virus named SARS-CoV-2. Due to its high transmission capability, the disease rapidly reached all countries in the globe, mainly through airports networks [1, 2, 3], and, on March 11 th 2020, WHO declared it as a pandemic. As of September 2021, the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard [4] showed more than 200 million cases and more than 4 million deaths globally.…”