2019
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau2406
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Abstract: Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), u… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
3
1

Citation Types

0
50
0
1

Year Published

2020
2020
2022
2022

Publication Types

Select...
8
1
1

Relationship

3
7

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 112 publications
(51 citation statements)
references
References 64 publications
0
50
0
1
Order By: Relevance
“…increasing temperatures, high precipitation events or drought stress) or the genetic and agronomic progress (expansion of wheat to sites with lower productivity, increasing shares of ‘second wheat’ in crop rotation), socio‐economic incentives and/or constraints (e.g. world market price for wheat grain or general production factors; expansion of organic production systems; legal limitations to fertilization; political subsidies, price influences from climate events) were in the focus of research (Brisson et al, 2010; Grassini et al, 2013; Himanen, Hakala, & Kahiluoto, 2013; Laidig et al, 2017; Olesen et al, 2012; Reidsma, Oude Lansink, & Ewert, 2008; Trnka et al, 2019).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…increasing temperatures, high precipitation events or drought stress) or the genetic and agronomic progress (expansion of wheat to sites with lower productivity, increasing shares of ‘second wheat’ in crop rotation), socio‐economic incentives and/or constraints (e.g. world market price for wheat grain or general production factors; expansion of organic production systems; legal limitations to fertilization; political subsidies, price influences from climate events) were in the focus of research (Brisson et al, 2010; Grassini et al, 2013; Himanen, Hakala, & Kahiluoto, 2013; Laidig et al, 2017; Olesen et al, 2012; Reidsma, Oude Lansink, & Ewert, 2008; Trnka et al, 2019).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is usually associated with substantial economic losses especially in agriculture (Ding et al, 2011), which are often regarded as a precursor of famine and conflicts in the rapidly growing population of the developing world (UN, 2018). Although impacts of individual drought events on global crop productivity are difficult to prove, a recent study by Trnka et al (2019) showed a link between the size of drought‐affected areas and global wheat and cereal prices. Many drought indices relying on various data and methods have been developed in order to analyze duration and severity of droughts, ranging from the relatively simple Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; Guttman, 1998) to advanced satellite‐ and model‐based indices (WMO & GWP, 2016).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this paper, we assessed how predicted warmer and drier climate conditions could impact weed communities and crop yields across three contrasting small grain cropping systems. This knowledge is essential as up to 60% of the global wheat production could be impacted by predicted warmer and drier climates (Trnka et al, 2019). Additionally, there is an urgent need to develop cropping systems that reduce their reliance on external inputs to manage pests and secure yields (Snapp et al, 2015, Reganold & Wachter, 2016, Peterson et al, 2018).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%