Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.climate adaptation policy | climate impact and adaptation assessment | integrated assessment model | computable general equilibrium

The determinants of private flood mitigation measures in Germany — Evidence from a nationwide survey

“…While these two major events attracted a lot of media attention, there are further small events like local flash floods or inundations after heavy rain, which may also have severe economic implications for the directly affected households. 1 Climate change is expected to increase the economic damage due to riverine floods in Europe (Ciscar et al 2011;Feyen, Barredo, and Dankers 2009;Rojas, Feyen, and Watkiss 2013). For Germany, further analyses demonstrate similar trends (GDV 2011;Hattermann, Huang, et al 2013).…”

Adaptation to Climate Variability: Evidence for German Households

“…For example, there is a broad consensus that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cause climate change (Stocker et al, 2013), which in turn can have significantly negative impacts on human health (Hajat and Kosatky, 2010;Patz et al, 2005) and economic well-being (Ciscar et al, 2011;Tol, 2009). Thus, the governments of many countries aim at mitigating climate change by reducing GHG emissions, whereas adaptation strategies are designed to cope with the impacts of climate change.…”

The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment

“…The forced migration damage is interpreted in the CAGE model as an increase in obliged consumption, which means that the expenditure associated with forced migration is included as part of GDP, but not part of welfare (equivalent 9 The sectors are coal, gas, petroleum, crude oil, electricity, construction, chemicals, agriculture, crops, forest, metals, other energy intensive industries, electronic equipment, transport equipment, other equipment, consumer goods, transport, market services and non-market services. 10 The same disaggregation was used for the PESETA project (Ciscar et al 2011 variation). 11 Therefore, the obliged consumption implies a welfare loss, as consumption is allocated to (compulsory) migration instead of other purposes.…”