The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACTThe Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (tPCC), and to represent the utilization offuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the "story lines~ prepared by the !pceEach scenario has projections of population and gross domestic product. 'Illese projections were used as input in the GFPM simulations.lOe lPCC also makes projections of forest area, which were integrated in the timber supply sub-mode! of the GFPM. The IPCC scenarios also predict bioenergy production These projections were used in the GFPM to determine forest area. forest stock, and the demand, supply, prices, and trade of forest products up to 2060. The main finding concerns the important impact of the high demand for biofuels impliE.'d in some of the IPCC scenarios. In particular, scenario AlB would induce a nearly 6-fold increase in the world demand for fuelwood by 2060. As a result, the real price of fuelwood would rise and converge towards the price of industrial roundwood by about 2025. At that point, industrial roundwood. which was used in the past to manufacture sawnwood, panels, and pulp, would begin to be used for energy production. The price of all wood would then continue to rise steadily up to 2060, and the price of manufactured product would increase in concert. The high fuelwood harvest would imply ecologically stressed forest~ in several countries, even under scenario A2 with a nearly 3-fold increase in fuelwood production by 2060. t. IntroductionAlthough separated by great, but diminishing, geographical clnd cultural distances, the forest sectors of different countries are linked through international trade and global environmental policies. To a large extent the future of any country, even a large country such as the United States, depends on world markets. It is therefore critical to understand how these markets work, and how they are affected by economic, demographic. and biological change, and by deliberate policy.During the last three decades, international trade of forest products has expanded rapidly. attracting more attention and driving much of the forest policy debate, As a case in point China's rapid economic growth is having profound effects on the forest economy of the Asia Pacific, including the United States, through demand [or raw materials and exports of processed wood products (Kat~igris et .11., 2005).As a result, in the United States, the decision was made for the 2010 Forest Assessment mandated by the Resources Planning Act (RPA). to firmly anchor the national assessment within a comprehensive international context. Specifically. the imports and exports of the United States, and the consequent domestic production and prices should be .. Corresponding author. Tel.: t I 608 262 0091; fax: + I 608 262 9922.

Highlights of Iamap Symposia at the Twentieth General Assembly of Iugg in Vienna, August 1991

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