Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. Methods: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. Results: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. Conclusions: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.

No abstract

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has extensively and rapidly spread in the world, causing an outbreak of acute infectious pneumonia. However, no specific antiviral drugs or vaccines can be used. Phillyrin (KD-1), a representative ingredient of Forsythia suspensa, possesses anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant, and antiviral activities. However, little is known about the antiviral abilities and mechanism of KD-1 against SARS-CoV-2 and human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E). Purpose The study was designed to investigate the antiviral and anti-inflammatory activities of KD-1 against the novel SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E and its potential effect in regulating host immune response in vitro . Methods The antiviral activities of KD-1 against SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E were assessed in Vero E6 cells using cytopathic effect and plaque-reduction assay. Proinflammatory cytokine expression levels upon infection with SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E infection in Huh-7 cells were measured by real-time quantitative PCR assays. Western blot assay was used to determine the protein expression of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) p65, p-NF-κB p65, IκBα, and p-IκBα in Huh-7 cells, which are the key targets of the NF-κB pathway. Results KD-1 could significantly inhibit SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E replication in vitro. KD-1 could also markedly reduce the production of proinflammatory cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6, IL-1β, MCP-1, and IP-10) at the mRNA levels. Moreover, KD-1 could significantly reduce the protein expression of p-NF-κB p65, NF-κB p65, and p-IκBα, while increasing the expression of IκBα in Huh-7 cells. Conclusions KD-1 could significantly inhibit virus proliferation in vitro , the up-regulated expression of proinflammatory cytokines induced by SARS-CoV-2 and HCoV-229E by regulating the activity of the NF-кB signaling pathway. Our findings indicated that KD-1 protected against virus attack and can thus be used as a novel strategy for controlling the coronavirus disease 2019.