Background: The objective of this study was to estimate probabilities of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with pancreatic head adenocarcinoma after surgery. In addition, we attempted to build nomograms to predict prognosis of these patients.Methods: Patients diagnosed with surgically resected pancreatic head adenocarcinoma between 2004 and 2014 were selected for the study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms were established for estimating 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The performance of the nomogram was measured by concordance index (C-index) and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).Results: A total of 2374 patients were retrospectively collected from the SEER database. The discrimination of nomogram for OS prediction was superior to that of the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) 7th or 8th edition stage systems (C-index = 0.640, 95% CI, 0.618 - 0.662 vs 0.573, 95% CI, 0.554 - 0.593, P < 0.001; 0.640, 95% CI, 0.618 - 0.662 vs 0.596, 95% CI, 0.586 - 0.607, P < 0.001, respectively). The comparisons of values of AUC showed that the established nomograms displayed better discrimination power than TNM 7th or 8th stage systems for predicting both OS and CSS.Conclusions: The nomograms which could predict 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were established in this study. Our nomograms showed a relatively good performance and could be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with pancreatic head adenocarcinoma after surgery.

Purpose This study was designed to evaluate the prognostic value of the combination of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (neutrophil/platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR–PLR]) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who receive transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) therapy. Patients and methods Data from 216 patients who were diagnosed with HCC after TACE therapy were retrospectively collected. R software was used to analyze the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and to compare the area under the ROC curves (AUROCs). Results The long-term survival rates were significantly higher for patients with lower values than those with higher values of NLR, PLR, and NLR–PLR. The mean overall survival decreased gradually with increases in the NLR–PLR score ( P <0.0001). The AUROC values of the NLR–PLR score were consistently higher than those of NLR and PLR. Conclusion This study showed that the NLR–PLR score might be a useful predictor for patients with HCC who receive TACE therapy.

BackgroundIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis and 40%-60% of patients present with advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) have recently been used in unresectable ICC. The aim of this study was to compare the survival differences of unresectable ICC patients after TACE and HAIC treatment.MethodsBetween March 2011 and October 2019, a total of 126 patients with unresectable ICC, as evident from biopsies and imaging, and who had received TACE or HAIC were enrolled in this study. Baseline characteristics and survival differences were compared between the TACE and HAIC treatment groups.ResultsICC Patients had significantly higher survival rates after the HAIC treatment, compared with those after TACE treatment [1-year overall survival (OS) rates: 60.2% vs. 42.9%, 2-year OS rates: 38.7% vs. 29.4%, P=0.028; 1-year progression-free survival (PFS) rates: 15.0% vs. 20.0%, 2-year PFS rates: 0% vs. 0%, P=0.641; 1-year only intrahepatic PFS (OIPFS) rates: 35.0% vs. 24.4%, 2-year OIPFS rates: 13.1% vs. 14.6%, P = 0.026]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that HAIC was a significant and independent factor for OS and OIPFS in the study cohort.ConclusionsHAIC is superior to TACE for treatment of unresectable ICC. A new tumor response evaluation procedure for HAIC treatment in unresectable ICC patients is needed to provide better therapeutic strategies. A randomized clinical trial comparing the survival benefits of HAIC and TACE is therefore being considered.

Recurrence and distant metastases were main reasons of unfavorable outcomes for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after surgery. The aim of this study was to describe the patterns, timing, and predictors of recurrence or metastasis in PDAC patients after curative surgery. Patients with PDAC who underwent radical pancreatectomy were included. Associations between clinicopathological and radiological characteristics and specific pattern of progression were investigated. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox regression were applied to assess the prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). A total of 302 patients were included into present study, and 173 patients were documented as recurrence after a median survival of 24.7 months. More than half of patients recurred after 12 months after surgery, and the liver was the most common metastatic site. Decreased time interval to progression, elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level, and lymph node (LN)16 metastasis were independent predictors for reduced OS. Independent prognostic factors for PFS included elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, local progression, liver or lung-only metastasis, local + distant progression, multiple metastases, LN16 metastasis, imaging tumor size, chemotherapy, and tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) stage. The predictive system showed valuable prediction performance with values of concordance indexes (C-indexes) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) over 0.80. Different survival curves and predictive factors for specific patterns of disease progression suggested the biological heterogeneity, providing new versions into personal management of recurrence in PDAC patients after surgery.

Background With the increase in cancer survivors, more pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs) are developing as second primary cancers. Whether a prior cancer has an inferior impact on survival outcomes in patients with PDAC remains unknown, and the validity of criteria used to exclude patients with prior cancers in clinical trials needs to be determined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors and assess the survival impact of a prior cancer in patients with second primary PDAC. Methods Patients with PDAC were retrospectively selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific mortality rates were compared between patients with and those without prior cancer. Results The data of 9235 patients with PDAC from 2004 to 2015 were retrieved from the SEER database, consisting of 438 (4.74%) patients with a prior cancer and 8797 (95.26%) patients without a prior cancer, the patients were then pair-matched using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. The median OS rates were 7 months for both groups of patients with PDAC with and without prior cancer. These two groups of patients had similar survival rates and cancer-specific mortalities before and after the PSM analysis. In the multivariate analysis, a history of prior cancer was not a significant prognostic factor of OS in patients with PDAC. Conclusions Patients with PDAC who had a prior cancer had similar OS and cancer-specific mortality rates as those of patients without a prior cancer. The inclusion of patients with a prior cancer in the clinical trials of PDAC should be considered. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5744-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting the prognosis of gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) has always been important for improving survival. The objective of this study was to determine the risk factors of survival for patients with GBC after surgery and to develop predictive nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) using a large population-based cohort. We identified 2,762 patients with primary resectable GBC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period of 2004 to 2014 and another 152 patients with GBC after surgery from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) for the period of 1997 to 2017. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific mortalities were 37.2, 52.9, and 59.9%, while the competing mortalities were 5.8, 7.8, and 9.0%, respectively. Nomograms were developed to estimate OS and CSS, and these were validated by concordance indexes (C-indexes) and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The C-indexes of the nomograms for OS and CSS prediction were 0.704 and 0.732, respectively. In addition, compared with the 8th Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system, the newly established nomograms displayed higher areas under the ROC curves for OS and PFS prediction. The nomograms are well-validated and could thus aid individual clinical practice.

Locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) has a dismal prognosis even after standard chemotherapy, and local progression contributes to nearly one-third of the deaths of these patients. As a local destructive method, irreversible electroporation (IRE) can feasibly treat LAPC. The aim of this study was to evaluate IRE combined with chemotherapy as a new treatment and compare its efficacy with that of chemotherapy alone in patients with LAPC. The data of LAPC patients who received chemotherapy with or without IRE were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). The efficacy of these two treatments was compared using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. LAPC patients treated with the combination therapy had better overall survival (OS). Significantly higher cancer-specific survival (CSS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates were also observed in patients after IRE combined with chemotherapy, compared with chemotherapy alone. IRE combined with chemotherapy was established as a favorable factor for OS, CSS, and PFS in LAPC patients. This combination method may be a more suitable treatment for patients with LAPC.

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of cancer-specific death of patients with acinar cell carcinoma (ACC) and build nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of these patients.Methods: Data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed with ACC between 2004 and 2014 were retrospectively collected. Cancer-specific mortality and competing risk mortality were evaluated. Nomograms for estimating 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were established based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The precision of the 1-, 2- and 3-year survival of the nomograms was evaluated and compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).Results: The study cohort included 227 patients with ACC. The established nomograms were well calibrated, and had good discriminative ability, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.742 for OS prediction and 0.766 for CSS prediction. The nomograms displayed better discrimination power than 7th or 8th edition Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage systems in training set and validation set for predicting both OS and CSS. The AUC values of the nomogram predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS rates were 0.784, 0.797 and 0.805, respectively, which were higher than those of 7th or 8th edition TNM stage systems. Regard to the prediction of CSS rates, the AUC values of the nomogram were also higher than those of 7th or 8th edition TNM stage systems.Conclusion: We evaluated the 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS in patients with ACC for the first time. Our nomograms showed relatively good performance and could be considered as convenient individualized predictive tools for prognosis.