Achieving hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is a satisfactory endpoint during antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study aimed to develop and validate a novel scoring system to predict HBeAg seroconversion during entecavir (ETV) treatment. A total of 526 patients with HBeAg‐positive CHB treated with ETV for at least 1 year were randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts. Baseline parameters including hepatitis B virus DNA, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb), and alanine aminotransferase level were quantified. Patients who achieved HBeAg seroconversion were compared with those without HBeAg seroconversion. A prediction model was established to predict HBeAg seroconversion during ETV treatment. After a median follow up of 2.67 years, 93 (36.0%) and 87 (32.5%) patients in the training and validation cohorts developed HBeAg seroconversion. A prediction score composed of age, HBsAg and HBcAb quantification was derived. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curve at 5 years of this prediction score were 0.70 and 0.72 in the training and validation cohorts. By using the dual cutoff values of 0.28 and 0.58, the model was endowed with high sensitivity and specificity to exclude or identify patients developing HBeAg seroconversion (90.3% sensitivity and 90.2% specificity in the training cohort as well as 92.8% sensitivity and 84.4% specificity in the validation cohort, respectively). A novel prediction score that uses baseline clinical variables was developed and validated. The score accurately estimates the probabilities of developing HBeAg seroconversion at 5‐years ETV therapy in patients with CHB.
Background Little is known about cause and intervention for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation after complete viral suppression in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods In this prospective cohort study, patients with CHB who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs and maintained undetectable levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) for at least 6 months were enrolled. Patients were followed up at 6-month intervals, and anthropometric, biochemical, and virological assessments were performed. Results Of 1965 patients with median follow-up of 18.36 months, one third of patients experienced ALT elevation. Baseline high body mass index ([BMI] defined as ≥25 kg/m2), younger age, and liver cirrhosis independently increased the risk of longitudinal ALT elevation. At the end of follow-up, 89 (4.8%) patients reverted to low BMI, and 92 (5.0%) developed to high BMI. Compared with persistent high BMI, reversion to low BMI reduced the risk of ALT elevation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19–0.77); compared with persistent low BMI, onset of high BMI increased the risk of ALT elevation (aOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.02–3.11). Conclusions High BMI is an independent predictor for ALT elevation after complete HBV DNA suppression. Improvement of BMI may have a beneficial effect on ALT normalization and even long-term outcomes.
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