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Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when implementing hydrological regulation for aquatic ecosystems around the globe.

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Lake Chaohu is one of the most eutrophic lakes in China. Research on this lake's seasonal and spatial variations in phytoplankton diversity is needed to understand the distribution of eutrophication, as well as to find appropriate comprehensive biodiversity indices to assess the eutrophication status of the lake. The present study indicated that the Margalef index of all samples was as low as 0.799±0.543 in summer (August 2011) and as high as 1.467±0.653 in winter (February 2012). The Margalef index of the river samples had a high mean value and substantial variation compared with the lake samples. The Peilou index of the lake samples was higher than that of the river samples in summer and autumn (November 2011) but lower than that of the river samples in winter. In spring (May 2012), the Peilou index of the western samples was lower than that of the eastern samples. The spatial distribution of the Shannon-Wiener index was more similar to that of the Peilou index in autumn and winter, while in spring and summer, the spatial distribution was affected by both species richness and evenness. High eutrophication levels occurred in the western lake in spring and summer, whereas high levels occurred in the eastern lake, especially in the middle of the lake, in autumn and winter. The total trophic state index (TSI) in all samples exhibited a significant negative correlation with the Margalef (r =-0.726) and Peilou (r =-0.530) indices but a significant positive correlation with the Shannon-Wiener (r =0.654) index. The partial correlation analysis results implied that these phytoplankton biodiversity indices could serve as synthetic ecological indicators to assess the eutrophication condition of Lake Chaohu.