[1] The Earth Probe (EP)/Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone (O 3 ) data are employed in an investigation of the relationship between total column ozone and hurricanes. It is shown that variations of total ozone amounts are closely related to the formation, intensification, and movement of a hurricane. A high correlation between TOMS O 3 and upper level geopotential height is found within hurricanes. A regimedependent high correlation between TOMS O 3 and vertically integrated potential vorticity fields is also found in a hurricane environment. Several regression models are developed for applying TOMS O 3 to hurricane initialization and data assimilation.
The large uncertainty in fracture characterization for shale gas reservoirs seriously affects the confidence in making forecasts, fracturing design, and taking recovery enhancement measures. This paper presents a workflow to characterize the complex fracture networks (CFNs) and reduce the uncertainty by integrating stochastic CFNs modeling constrained by core and microseismic data, reservoir simulation using a novel edge-based Green element method (eGEM), and assisted history matching based on Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF).
In this paper, the geometry of CFNs is generated stochastically constrained by the measurements of hydraulic fracturing treatment, core, and microseismic data. A stochastic parameterization model is used to generate an ensemble of initial realizations of the stress-dependent fracture conductivities of CFNs. To make the eGEM practicable for reservoir simulation, a steady-state fundamental solution is applied to the integral equation, and the technique of local grid refinement (LGR) is applied to refine the domain grids near the fractures. Finally, assisted-history-matching based on EnKF is implemented to calibrate the DFN models and further quantify the uncertainties in the fracture characterization.
The proposed technique is tested using a multi-stage fractured horizontal well from a shale gas field. After analyzing the history matching results, the proposed integrated workflow is shown to be efficient in characterizing fracture networks and reducing the uncertainties. The advantages are exhibited in several aspects. First, the eGEM-based Discrete-Fracture Model (DFM) is shown to be quite efficient in assisted history matching of large field applications because of eGEM’s high precision with coarse grids. This enables simulations of CFNs without upscaling the fractures using continuum approaches. In addition, CFNs geometry can be generated with the constraints of core and microseismic data, and a primary conductivity of CFNs can be generated using the hydraulic fracturing treatment data. Moreover, the uncertainties for CFNs characterization and EUR predictions can be further reduced with the application of EnKF in assimilating the production data.
This paper provides an efficient integrated workflow to characterize the fracture networks in fractured unconventional reservoirs. This workflow, which incorporated several efficient techniques including fracture network modeling, simulation and calibration, can be readily used in field applications. In addition, various data sources could be assimilated in this workflow to reduce the uncertainty in fracture characterization, including hydraulic fracturing treatment, core, microseismic and production data.
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