In this paper, we propose a citywide and real-time model for estimating the travel time of any path (represented as a sequence of connected road segments) in real time in a city, based on the GPS trajectories of vehicles received in current time slots and over a period of history as well as map data sources. Though this is a strategically important task in many traffic monitoring and routing systems, the problem has not been well solved yet given the following three challenges. The first is the data sparsity problem, i.e., many road segments may not be traveled by any GPS-equipped vehicles in present time slot. In most cases, we cannot find a trajectory exactly traversing a query path either. Second, for the fragment of a path with trajectories, they are multiple ways of using (or combining) the trajectories to estimate the corresponding travel time. Finding an optimal combination is a challenging problem, subject to a tradeoff between the length of a path and the number of trajectories traversing the path (i.e., support). Third, we need to instantly answer users' queries which may occur in any part of a given city. This calls for an efficient, scalable and effective solution that can enable a citywide and real-time travel time estimation. To address these challenges, we model different drivers' travel times on different road segments in different time slots with a three dimension tensor. Combined with geospatial, temporal and historical contexts learned from trajectories and map data, we fill in the tensor's missing values through a contextaware tensor decomposition approach. We then devise and prove an object function to model the aforementioned tradeoff, with which we find the most optimal concatenation of trajectories for an estimate through a dynamic programming solution. In addition, we propose using frequent trajectory patterns (mined from historical trajectories) to scale down the candidates of concatenation and a suffix-tree-based index to manage the trajectories received in the present time slot. We evaluate our method based on extensive experiments, using GPS trajectories generated by more than 32,000 taxis over a period of two months. The results demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and scalability of our method beyond baseline approaches.
Hundreds of dams have been proposed throughout the Amazon basin, one of the world’s largest untapped hydropower frontiers. While hydropower is a potentially clean source of renewable energy, some projects produce high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit electricity generated (carbon intensity). Here we show how carbon intensities of proposed Amazon upland dams (median = 39 kg CO2eq MWh−1, 100-year horizon) are often comparable with solar and wind energy, whereas some lowland dams (median = 133 kg CO2eq MWh−1) may exceed carbon intensities of fossil-fuel power plants. Based on 158 existing and 351 proposed dams, we present a multi-objective optimization framework showing that low-carbon expansion of Amazon hydropower relies on strategic planning, which is generally linked to placing dams in higher elevations and smaller streams. Ultimately, basin-scale dam planning that considers GHG emissions along with social and ecological externalities will be decisive for sustainable energy development where new hydropower is contemplated.
Rapid construction of phase diagrams is a central tenet of combinatorial materials science with accelerated materials discovery efforts often hampered by challenges in interpreting combinatorial X-ray diffraction data sets, which we address by developing AgileFD, an artificial intelligence algorithm that enables rapid phase mapping from a combinatorial library of X-ray diffraction patterns. AgileFD models alloying-based peak shifting through a novel expansion of convolutional nonnegative matrix factorization, which not only improves the identification of constituent phases but also maps their concentration and lattice parameter as a function of composition. By incorporating Gibbs' phase rule into the algorithm, physically meaningful phase maps are obtained with unsupervised operation, and more refined solutions are attained by injecting expert knowledge of the system. The algorithm is demonstrated through investigation of the V-Mn-Nb oxide system where decomposition of eight oxide phases, including two with substantial alloying, provides the first phase map for this pseudoternary system. This phase map enables interpretation of high-throughput band gap data, leading to the discovery of new solar light absorbers and the alloying-based tuning of the direct-allowed band gap energy of MnVO. The open-source family of AgileFD algorithms can be implemented into a broad range of high throughput workflows to accelerate materials discovery.
Understanding how species are distributed across landscapes over time is a fundamental question in biodiversity research. Unfortunately, most species distribution models only target a single species at a time, despite strong ecological evidence that species are not independently distributed. We propose Deep Multi-Species Embedding (DMSE), which jointly embeds vectors corresponding to multiple species as well as vectors representing environmental covariates into a common highdimensional feature space via a deep neural network. Applied to bird observational data from the citizen science project eBird, we demonstrate how the DMSE model discovers inter-species relationships to outperform single-species distribution models (random forests and SVMs) as well as competing multi-label models. Additionally, we demonstrate the benefit of using a deep neural network to extract features within the embedding and show how they improve the predictive performance of species distribution modelling. An important domain contribution of the DMSE model is the ability to discover and describe species interactions while simultaneously learning the shared habitat preferences among species. As an additional contribution, we provide a graphical embedding of hundreds of bird species in the Northeast US.
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