1) Roughly half of all medical intensive care unit patients predicted to die in hospital survived to discharge nonetheless. 2) More highly corroborated predictions had better predictive value; although, approximately 15% of patients survived unexpectedly, even when predicted to die by all medical caretakers.
If absolute certainty about mortality is the only criterion that can justify a decision to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment in the NICU, these data would make such decisions difficult on the first day of life, and increasingly problematic thereafter. However, if we acknowledge that medicine is inevitably an inexact science and that clinical predictions can never be perfect, we can ask the more interesting question of whether good but less-than-perfect predictions of imprecise but ethically relevant clinical outcomes can still be useful. We think that they can-and that they must.
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