Traffic accidents in mountainous highway tunnels have resulted in significant negative effects and losses. Among the potential hazards that can lead to fatal injuries, human-related hazards have been recognized as the leading cause. Determining the risk management effectively and prioritizing unsafe human behavior are the basis for preventing and controlling traffic accidents in mountainous highway tunnels. Therefore, hazards that could potentially cause highway tunnel traffic accidents were identified by using a tail-biting fish diagram combined with the fault tree method. A risk assessment model was constructed based on probability, degree of importance, and loss. Furthermore, the probability can be calculated by assessing the degree of unreliability, which can be obtained by assessing the degree of importance of unsafe behavior in the fault tree, and the loss can be acquired from the authority. The case of 8–10 traffic accidents that occurred in the Qinling No. 1 Tunnel of the Ankang section of the Beijing-Kunming expressway was studied, and the values of the unsafe behaviors were assessed. According to the risk values, the priority for controlling unsafe behaviors can be acquired and tailored measures can be taken to prevent and control the risks, which provides a theoretical basis and new method for the effective control of mountainous highway tunnel traffic accidents.
Ensuring international transport corridors’ safety is essential for countries along the routes. For the sustainable development of international transport channels, this paper discusses how to evaluate the operational risks and how to alleviate the adverse effects caused by emergencies. First, an indicator system of international transport corridors’ operational risks was constructed, which consists of 30 indicators from five dimensions of politics, economy, society, safety, and technology. Secondly, a comprehensive scoring approach combined with a network analysis method was applied to examine the effects caused by operational hazards. On this basis, the quantitative method and rigorous statistical analysis were used to evaluate the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor in the south line of the Silk Road Economic Belt, whose operational risks from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed. Finally, the operational risk index was discussed in detail. Results demonstrate the following. (1) During the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor, the Pakistan section has the highest operational risk index, and the next culprit is Turkey, followed by Iran. The Chinese section has the lowest operational risk index. (2) Pakistan has been trapped in severe political risks and security risks in recent years. Turkey suffers from severe security risks due to the Kurdish problem. Iran ranks first in terms of economic risk and social risk. Special attention should be paid to the natural risks for China. (3) Pakistan’s operational risks will exhibit consistently high in the future, while China appears downwards in long-term trend. The operational risk index in Iran is on the rise. Turkey shows a flattening of and then a slight decline in the foreseeable future.
A new tracking algorithm is proposed for strong-maneuvering target, which is based on a two-layer nested model with Improved Current Statistical (ICS) model and Curvilinear (CL) model as the inner and outer layer respectively. The inner layer use ICS model to construct statistics with filtering residuals to detect target's maneuver and thus correcting the parameters of CS model in real time in order to adapt to target's real motion. The outer layer uses the estimate of acceleration obtained from the inner layer as its input and in this way conduct better performance of target tracking by taking advantage of CL model, which can better correspond to the curvilinear motion of target. Simulation results show the practicability of the algorithm proposed in this article and demonstrate good tracking performance.
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