Abstract. Modelling of terrestrial systems is continuously moving towards more integrated modelling approaches, where different terrestrial compartment models are combined in order to realise a more sophisticated physical description of water, energy and carbon fluxes across compartment boundaries and to provide a more integrated view on terrestrial processes. While such models can effectively reduce certain parameterisation errors of single compartment models, model predictions are still prone to uncertainties regarding model input variables. The resulting uncertainties of model predictions can be effectively tackled by data assimilation techniques, which allow one to correct model predictions with observations taking into account both the model and measurement uncertainties. The steadily increasing availability of computational resources makes it now increasingly possible to perform data assimilation also for computationally highly demanding integrated terrestrial system models. However, as the computational burden for integrated models as well as data assimilation techniques is quite large, there is an increasing need to provide computationally efficient data assimilation frameworks for integrated models that allow one to run on and to make efficient use of massively parallel computational resources. In this paper we present a data assimilation framework for the land surface–subsurface part of the Terrestrial System Modelling Platform (TerrSysMP). TerrSysMP is connected via a memory-based coupling approach with the pre-existing parallel data assimilation library PDAF (Parallel Data Assimilation Framework). This framework provides a fully parallel modular environment for performing data assimilation for the land surface and the subsurface compartment. A simple synthetic case study for a land surface–subsurface system (0.8 million unknowns) is used to demonstrate the effects of data assimilation in the integrated model TerrSysMP and to assess the scaling behaviour of the data assimilation system. Results show that data assimilation effectively corrects model states and parameters of the integrated model towards the reference values. Scaling tests provide evidence that the data assimilation system for TerrSysMP can make efficient use of parallel computational resources for > 30 k processors. Simulations with a large problem size (20 million unknowns) for the forward model were also efficiently handled by the data assimilation system. The proposed data assimilation framework is useful in simulating and estimating uncertainties in predicted states and fluxes of the terrestrial system over large spatial scales at high resolution utilising integrated models.
Online data acquisition, data assimilation and integrated hydrological modelling have become more and more important in hydrological science. In this study, we explore cloud computing for integrating field data acquisition and stochastic, physically-based hydrological modelling in a data assimilation and optimisation framework as a service to water resources management. For this purpose, we developed an ensemble Kalman filter-based data assimilation system for the fully-coupled, physically-based hydrological model HydroGeoSphere, which is able to run in a cloud computing environment. A synthetic data assimilation experiment based on the widely used tilted V-catchment problem showed that the computational overhead for the application of the data assimilation platform in a cloud computing environment is minimal, which makes it well-suited for practical water management problems. Advantages of the cloud-based implementation comprise the independence from computational infrastructure and the straightforward integration of cloud-based observation databases with the modelling and data assimilation platform.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is increasingly used to improve the real-time prediction of groundwater states and the estimation of uncertain hydraulic subsurface parameters through assimilation of measurement data like groundwater levels and concentration data. At the interface between surface water and groundwater, measured groundwater temperature data can provide an additional source of information for subsurface characterizations with EnKF. Additionally, an improved prediction of the temperature field itself is often desirable for groundwater management. In this work, we investigate the worth of a joint assimilation of hydraulic and thermal observation data on the state and parameter estimation with EnKF for two different model setups: (i) a simple synthetic model of a river-aquifer system where the parameters and simulation conditions were perfectly known and (ii) a model of the Limmat aquifer in Zurich (Switzerland) where an exhaustive set of real-world observations of groundwater levels (87) and temperatures (22) was available for assimilation (year 2007) and verification (year 2011). Results for the synthetic case suggest that a joint assimilation of piezometric heads and groundwater temperatures together with updating of uncertain hydraulic parameters gives the best estimation of states and hydraulic properties of the model. For the real-world case, the prediction of groundwater temperatures could also be improved through data assimilation with EnKF. For the validation period, it was found that parameter fields updated with piezometric heads reduced RMSE's of states significantly (heads 249%, temperature 215%), but an additional conditioning of parameters on groundwater temperatures only influenced the characterization of the temperature field.
[1] An adequate characterization of river bed hydraulic conductivities (L) is crucial for a proper assessment of river-aquifer interactions. However, river bed characteristics may change over time due to dynamic morphological processes like scouring or sedimentation what can lead to erroneous model predictions when static leakage parameters are assumed. Sequential data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) allows for an update of model parameters in real-time and may thus be capable of assessing the transient behavior of L. Synthetic experiments with a three-dimensional finite element model of the Limmat aquifer in Zurich were used to assess the performance of data assimilation in capturing time-variant river bed properties. Reference runs were generated where L followed different temporal and/or spatial patterns which should mimic real-world sediment dynamics. Hydraulic head (h) data from these reference runs were then used as input data for EnKF which jointly updated h and L. Results showed that EnKF is able to capture the different spatio-temporal patterns of L in the reference runs well. However, the adaptation time was relatively long which was attributed to the fast decrease of ensemble variance. To improve the performance of EnKF also an adaptive filtering approach with covariance inflation was applied that allowed a faster and more accurate adaptation of model parameters. A sensitivity analysis indicated that even for a low amount of observations a reasonable adaptation of L towards the reference values can be achieved and that EnKF is also able to correct for a biased initial ensemble of L.
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