Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage 1 than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects 2 . Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave 3 , but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain 4,5 . Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (6100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT 54.185310 12 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique 4-6 of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations 7 based on the effects of nuclear weapons-almost always used with this technique-overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates 5,6 near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques 8,9 . This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes. for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on indirect illumination measured from video records. The brightness is an average derived from indirect scattered sky brightness from six videos proximal to the airburst, corrected for the sensor gamma setting, autogain, range and airmass extinction, following the procedure used for other airburst light curves generated from video 24,25 . The light curve has been normalized using the US government sensor data peak brightness value of 2.7 3 10 13 W sr 21, corresponding to an absolute astronomical magnitude of 228 in the silicon bandpass. The individual video light curves deviate by less than one magnitude between times 22 and 11.5 with larger deviations outside this interval. Time zero corresponds to 03:20:32.2 UTC on 15 February 2013. b, The energy deposition per unit height for the Chelyabinsk airburst, based on video data. The conversion to absolute energy deposition per unit path length assumes a blackbody emission of 6,000 K and bolometric efficiency of 17%, the same as the assumptions used to convert earlier US government sensor information to energy 26 . The heights are computed us...

The flashes from meteoroid impacts on the Moon are useful in determining the flux of impactors with masses as low as a few tens of grams. A routine monitoring program at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has recorded over 300 impacts since 2006. A selection of 126 flashes recorded during periods of photometric skies was analyzed, creating the largest and most homogeneous dataset of lunar impact flashes to date. Standard CCD photometric techniques were applied to the video and the luminous energy, kinetic energy, and mass are estimated for each impactor. Shower associations were determined for most of the impactors and a range of luminous efficiencies was considered. The flux to a limiting energy of 2.5×10 -6 kT TNT or 1.05×10 7 J is 1.03×10 -7 km -2 hr -1 and the flux to a limiting mass of 30 g is 6.14×10 -10 m -2 yr -1 at the Moon. Comparisons made with measurements and models of the meteoroid population indicate that the flux of objects in this size range is slightly lower (but within the error bars) than flux at this size from the power law distribution determined for the near Earth object and fireball population by Brown et al. 2002. Size estimates for the crater detected by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter from a large impact observed on March 17, 2013 are also briefly discussed.

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