PurposeThe purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐based policy research and horizon (environmental) scanning.Design/methodology/approachThe paper begins with a brief history of foresight in UK government, then describes the current government context for horizon scanning. Next, it defines horizon scanning as a method; highlights the contradictions between horizon scanning and more traditional empirical research; and offers suggestions to improve the rigor of horizon scanning.FindingsIncreased focus on defining the rules for source identification and scan data validation can enhance credibility.Research limitations/implicationsCurrent horizon scanning work in the UK government suggests these methodological improvements, but proof will wait upon completion and deployment of several ongoing horizon scans.Practical implicationsProvides improved acceptability and dissemination of horizon scanning as a tool, as well as heightened engagement of policy‐makers, planners, and leaders with horizon scanning output.Originality/valueThere has been little previous work exploring the cultural constraints on adoption of horizon scanning within the evidence‐based polity context.
We investigate the role of accounting and audit quality in the allocation of international development aid loans provided by the World Bank. This aid is crucial to improve governance functions, infrastructure, and capital markets, and the accounting and audit environments in a country can provide the World Bank with confidence that aid is being used as intended rather than being diverted for personal or political gain. We find that development aid loans are higher for countries with stronger accounting quality, where IFRS use is mandated, and where the audit environment is stronger. However, we also find that United States geo-political interests influence these results. Specifically, the World Bank appears to “overlook” accounting and audit quality in countries where geo-political interests are relatively aligned with those of the U.S. Finally, we find that accounting and auditing matter only in countries with relatively high corruption levels, indicating that the World Bank has greater trust that accounting and auditing are of relatively high quality in low-corruption countries.
Data Availability: All data are publicly available.
This article provides a brief overview of the development of futures thinking and futures studies as exploratory activities, as applied research, and as an academic field. Beginning with prehistory, the narrative divides the development of futures work into five waves: (1) the oral tradition, (2) the early written age, (3) enlightenment and extraction, (4) systems and cybernetics, and (5) complexity and emergence. It also highlights in broad strokes the intellectual, cultural, political, economic, technological, and social contexts that informed the evolution of futures thinking.
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