This study applies response surface methodology (RSM) to the hyperparameter fine-tuning of three machine learning (ML) algorithms: artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and deep belief network (DBN). The purpose is to demonstrate RSM effectiveness in maintaining ML algorithm performance while reducing the number of runs required to reach effective hyperparameter settings in comparison with the commonly used grid search (GS). The ML algorithms are applied to a case study dataset from a food producer in Thailand. The objective is to predict a raw material quality measured on a numerical scale. K-fold cross-validation is performed to ensure that the ML algorithm performance is robust to the data partitioning process in the training, validation, and testing sets. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the validation set is used as the prediction accuracy measurement. The reliability of the hyperparameter values from GS and RSM is evaluated using confirmation runs. Statistical analysis shows that (1) the prediction accuracy of the three ML algorithms tuned by GS and RSM is similar, (2) hyperparameter settings from GS are 80% reliable for ANN and DBN, and settings from RSM are 90% and 100% reliable for ANN and DBN, respectively, and (3) savings in the number of runs required by RSM over GS are 97.79%, 97.81%, and 80.69% for ANN, SVM, and DBN, respectively.
Inefficient or poorly planned waste management systems are a burden to society and economy. For example, excessively long waste transportation routes can have a negative impact on a large share of the population. This is exacerbated by the rapid urbanization happening worldwide and in developing countries. Sustainability issues should be accounted for at every stage of decision making, from strategic to daily operations. In this paper, we propose a multiobjective optimization model to design a cost-effective waste management supply chain, while considering sustainability issues such as land-use and public health impacts. The model is applied to a case study in Pathum Thani (Thailand) to provide managerial insights.
This article involves forecasting daily electricity consumption in Thailand. Electricity consumption data are provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Five forecasting techniques, including multiple linear regression, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine, hybrid models, and ensemble models, are implemented. The article proposes a hyperparameter tuning technique, called sequential grid search, which is based on the widely used grid search, for ANN and hybrid models. Auxiliary variables and indicator variables that can improve the models’ forecasting performance are included. From the computational experiment, the hybrid model of a multiple regression model to forecast the expected daily consumption and ANNs from the sequential grid search to forecast the error term, along with additional indicator variables for some national holidays, provides the best mean absolution percentage error of 1.5664% on the test data set.
Daily electricity peak load forecasting is important for electricity generation capacity planning. Accurate forecasting leads to saving on excessive electricity generating capacity, while maintaining the stability of the power system. The main challenging tasks in this research field include improving forecasting accuracy and reducing computational time. This paper proposes a hybrid model involving variational mode decomposition (VMD), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), fast Fourier transform (FFT), stepwise regression, similar days selection (SD) method, and artificial neural network (ANN) for daily electricity peak load forecasting. Stepwise regression and similar days selection method are used for input variable selection. VMD and FFT are applied for data decomposition and seasonality capturing, while EMD is employed for determining an appropriate decomposition level for VMD. The hybrid model is constructed to effectively forecast special holidays, which have different patterns from other normal weekdays and weekends. The performance of the hybrid model is tested with real electricity peak load data provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Experimental results show that the hybrid model gives the best performance while saving computation time by solving the problems in input variable selection, data decomposition, and imbalance data of normal and special days in the training process.
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