We used the lesional steps in tumor progression and multivariable logistic regression to develop a prognostic model for primary, clinical stage I cutaneous melanoma. This model is 89% accurate in predicting survival. Using histologic criteria, we assigned melanomas to tumor progression steps by ascertaining their particular growth phase. These phases were the in situ and invasive radial growth phase and the vertical growth phase (the focal formation of a dermal tumor nodule or dermal tumor plaque within the radial growth phase or such dermal growth without an evident radial growth phase). After a minimum follow-up of 100.6 months and a median follow-up of 150.2 months, 122 invasive radial-growth-phase tumors were found to be without metastases. Eight-year survival among the 264 patients whose tumors had entered the vertical growth phase was 71.2%. Survival prediction in these patients was enhanced by the use of a multivariable logistic regression model. Twenty-three attributes were tested for entry into this model. Six had independently predictive prognostic information: (a) mitotic rate per square millimeter, (b) tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, (c) tumor thickness, (d) anatomic site of primary melanoma, (e) sex of the patient, and (f) histologic regression. When mitotic rate per square millimeter, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, primary site, sex, and histologic regression are added to a logistic regression model containing tumor thickness alone, they are independent predictors of 8-year survival (P less than .0005).

The p16 gene is located in chromosome 9p21, a region that is linked to familial melanoma and homozygously deleted in many tumour cell lines. We describe eight p16 germline substitutions (one nonsense, one splice donor site and six missense) in 13/18 familial melanoma kindreds. Six of these mutations were identified in 33/36 melanoma cases in nine families, whereas two were detected in normal controls and are not disease-related. The melanoma-specific mutations were detected in 9p21-linked, but not in 1p36-linked, families, thereby confirming previous reports of genetic heterogeneity. Functional analyses of these mutations will confirm those causally related to the development of familial melanoma.

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The development of pancreatic cancer in kindreds prone to melanoma may require a p16M mutation. Genetic factors, such as the kind of mutation found in p16INK4, may explain the inconsistent occurrence of other cancers in these kindreds.