This study proposes Gaussian processes to forecast daily hotel occupancy at a city level. Unlike other studies in the tourism demand prediction literature, the hotel occupancy rate is predicted on a daily basis and 45 days ahead of time using online hotel room price data. A predictive framework is introduced that highlights feature extraction and selection of the independent variables. This approach shows that the dependence on internal hotel occupancy data can be removed by making use of a proxy measure for hotel occupancy rate at a city level. Six forecasting methods are investigated, including linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average and recent machine learning methods. The results indicate that Gaussian processes offer the best tradeoff between accuracy and interpretation by providing prediction intervals in addition to point forecasts. It is shown how the proposed framework improves managerial decision making in tourism planning.
The emergence of cryptocurrency markets has drastically changed how online transactions are conducted and provide a new investment opportunity. This study contributes to the literature on directional cryptocurrency price returns prediction by expanding the set of meaningful features extracted from textual data with sentiment analysis and comparing their usefulness across multiple data sources. In contrast to previous studies, we use fine-grained topic-sentiment features. More specifically, aspect-based sentiment analysis models, JST and TS-LDA, are implemented to incorporate joint topical-sentiment features and the degree of text subjectivity. We collected, and make available, a dataset, which consists of data scraped from Reddit, Bitcointalk and CryptoCompare sources, to demonstrate that proposed features lead to interpretable topics and an improvement in predictive performance.
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