Connectivity between coral reefs is critical to ensure their resilience and persistence against disturbances. It is driven by ocean currents, which often have very complex patterns within reef systems. Only biophysical models that simulate both the fine-scale details of ocean currents and the life-history traits of larvae transported by these currents can help to estimate connectivity in large reef systems. Here we use the unstructured-mesh coastal ocean model SLIM that locally achieves a spatial resolution of ∼100 m, 10 times finer than existing models, over the entire Florida Reef Tract (FRT). It allows us to simulate larval dispersal between the ∼1,000 reefs composing the FRT. By using different connectivity measures and clustering methods, we have identified two major connectivity pathways, one originating on the westernmost end of the outer shelf and the other originating on the inner shelf, North of the Lower Keys. We introduce new connectivity indicators, based on the PageRank algorithm, to show that protection efforts should be focused on the most upstream reefs of each pathway, while reefs best suited for restoration are more evenly spread between the Lower and Upper Keys. We identify one particular reef, North of Vaca Key, that is a major stepping stone in the connectivity network. Our results are the first reef-scale connectivity estimates for the entire FRT. Such fine-scale information can provide knowledge-based decision support to allocate conservation and restoration resources optimally.

The containment of genetically modified (GM) pollen is an issue of significant concern for many countries. For crops that are bee-pollinated, model predictions of outcrossing rates depend on the movement hypothesis used for the pollinators. Previous work studying pollen spread by honeybees, the most important pollinator worldwide, was based on the assumption that honeybee movement can be well approximated by Brownian motion. A number of recent studies, however, suggest that pollinating insects such as bees perform Lévy flights in their search for food. Such flight patterns yield much larger rates of spread, and so the Brownian motion assumption might significantly underestimate the risk associated with GM pollen outcrossing in conventional crops. In this work, we propose a mechanistic model for pollen dispersal in which the bees perform truncated Lévy flights. This assumption leads to a fractional-order diffusion model for pollen that can be tuned to model motion ranging from pure Brownian to pure Lévy. We parametrize our new model by taking the same pollen dispersal dataset used in Brownian motion modelling studies. By numerically solving the model equations, we show that the isolation distances required to keep outcrossing levels below a certain threshold are substantially increased by comparison with the original predictions, suggesting that isolation distances may need to be much larger than originally thought.

Abstract. The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element method is well suited for the modelling, with a relatively small number of elements, of three-dimensional flows exhibiting strong velocity or density gradients. Its performance can be highly enhanced by having recourse to r-adaptivity. Here, a vertical adaptive mesh method is developed for DG finite elements. This method, originally designed for finite difference schemes, is based on the vertical diffusion of the mesh nodes, with the diffusivity controlled by the density jumps at the mesh element interfaces.The mesh vertical movement is determined by means of a conservative arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation. Though conservativity is naturally achieved, tracer consistency is obtained by a suitable construction of the mesh vertical velocity field, which is defined in such a way that it is fully compatible with the tracer and continuity equations at a discrete level.The vertically adaptive mesh approach is implemented in the three-dimensional version of the geophysical and environmental flow Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Iceocean Model (SLIM 3D; www.climate.be/slim). Idealised benchmarks, aimed at simulating the oscillations of a sharp thermocline, are dealt with. Then, the relevance of the vertical adaptivity technique is assessed by simulating thermocline oscillations of Lake Tanganyika. The results are compared to measured vertical profiles of temperature, showing similar stratification and outcropping events.

The Columbia River (CR) estuary is characterized by high river discharge and strong tides that generate high velocity flows and sharp density gradients. Its dynamics strongly affects the coastal ocean circulation. Tidal straining in turn modulates the stratification in the estuary. Simulating the hydrodynamics of the CR estuary and plume therefore requires a multi-scale model as both shelf and estuarine circulations are coupled. Such a model has to keep numerical dissipation as low as possible in order to correctly represent the plume propagation and the salinity intrusion in the estuary. Here, we show that the 3D baroclinic discontinuous Galerkin finite element model SLIM 3D is able to reproduce the main features of the CR estuary-to-ocean continuum. We introduce new vertical discretization and mode splitting that allow us to model a region characterized by complex bathymetry and sharp density and velocity gradients. Our model takes into account the major forcings, i.e. tides, surface wind stress and river discharge, on a a single multi-scale grid. The simulation period covers the end of spring-early summer of 2006, a period of high river flow and strong changes in the wind regime. SLIM 3D is validated with in-situ data on the shelf and at multiple locations in the estuary and compared with an operational implementation of SELFE. The model skill in the estuary and on the shelf indicate that SLIM 3D is able to reproduce the key processes driving the river plume dynamics, such as the occurrence of bidirectional plumes or reversals of the inner shelf coastal currents.

No abstract