Prior studies of the power spectra of GPS position time series have found pervasive seasonal signals against a power-law background of flicker noise plus white noise. Dong et al. (2002) estimated that less than half the observed GPS seasonal power can be explained by redistributions of geophysical fluid mass loads. Much of the residual variation is probably caused by unidentified GPS technique errors and analysis artifacts. Among possible mechanisms, Penna and Stewart (2003) have shown how unmodeled analysis errors at tidal frequencies (near 12-and 24-hour periods) can be aliased to longer periods very efficiently. Signals near fortnightly, semiannual, and annual periods are expected to be most seriously affected. We have examined spectra for the 167 sites of the International GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) Service (IGS) network having more than 200 weekly measurements during 1996.0-2006.0. The non-linear residuals of the weekly IGS solutions that were included in ITRF2005, the latest version of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF), have been used. To improve the detection of common-mode signals, the normalized spectra of all sites have been stacked, then boxcar smoothed for each local north (N), east (E), and height (H) component. The stacked, smoothed spectra are very similar for all three components. Peaks are evident at harmonics of about 1 cycle per year (cpy) up to at least 6 cpy, but the peaks are not all at strictly 1.0 cpy intervals. Based on the 6th harmonic of the N spectrum, which is among the sharpest and largest, and assuming a linear overtone model, then a common fundamental of 1.040 ± 0.008 cpy can explain all peaks well, together with the expected annual and semiannual signals. A flicker noise power-law continuum describes the background spectrum down to periods of a few months, after which the residuals become whiter. Similar sub-seasonal tones are not apparent in the residuals of available satellite laser ranging (SLR) and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) sites, which are both an order of magnitude less numerous and dominated by white noise. There is weak evidence for a few isolated peaks near 1 cpy harmonics in the spectra of geophysical loadings, but these are much noisier than for GPS positions. Alternative explanations related to the GPS technique are suggested by the close coincidence of the period of the 1.040 cpy frequency, about 351.2 days, to the ''GPS year''; i.e., the interval required for the constellation to repeat its inertial orientation with respect to the sun. This could indicate that the harmonics are a type of systematic error related to the satellite orbits. Mechanisms could involve orbit modeling defects or aliasing of site-dependent positioning biases modulated by the varying satellite geometry.

Present destabilization of marine-based sectors in Greenland may increase sea level for centuries to come.

No abstract

From early 2003 to mid-2013, the total mass of ice in Greenland declined at a progressively increasing rate. In mid-2013, an abrupt reversal occurred, and very little net ice loss occurred in the next 12–18 months. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations reveal that the spatial patterns of the sustained acceleration and the abrupt deceleration in mass loss are similar. The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO enhances summertime warming and insolation while reducing snowfall, especially in west Greenland, driving surface mass balance (SMB) more negative, as illustrated using the regional climate model MAR. The spatial pattern of accelerating mass changes reflects the geography of NAO-driven shifts in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to that forcing. We infer that southwest Greenland will become a major future contributor to sea level rise.

[1] We compare approximately 3 years of GPS height residuals (with respect to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame) with predictions of vertical surface displacements derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields for stations in Europe. An annual signal fit to the residual monthly heights, corrected for atmospheric pressure and barotropic ocean loading effects, should primarily represent surface displacements due to long-wavelength variations in water storage. A comparison of the annual height signal from GPS and GRACE over Europe indicates that at most sites, the annual signals do not agree in amplitude or phase. We find that unlike the annual signal predicted from GRACE, the annual signal in the GPS heights is not coherent over the region, displaying significant variability from site to site. Confidence in the GRACE data and the unlikely possibility of large-amplitude smallscale features in the load field not captured by the GRACE data leads us to conclude that some of the discrepancy between the GPS and GRACE observations is due to technique errors in the GPS data processing. This is evidenced by the fact that the disagreement between GPS and GRACE is largest at coastal sites, where mismodeling of the semidiurnal ocean tidal loading signal can result in spurious annual signals.