No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

More than half of all US import relationships begin with less than $10,000 annually. The median relationship is observed to last just one year. The incidence and duration of these relationships are consistent with a search model of international trade. The preponderance of small starting relationships reveals uncertainty present in formation of trade relationships. Initial size, reliability, and search costs matter and play an important role. Larger initial purchase results in longer relationships. Higher reliability and lower search costs lead to larger initial purchases and longer relationships.JEL Codes: F14, C41

We employ survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Our findings indicate that international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. We find the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence-if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.