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The effect on weather forecast performance of incorporating ensemble covariances into the initial covariance model of the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) Naval Research Laboratory Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) is investigated. This NAVDAS-AR-hybrid scheme linearly combines the static NAVDAS-AR initial background error covariance with a covariance derived from an 80-member flow-dependent ensemble. The ensemble members are generated using the ensemble transform technique with a (three-dimensional variational data assimilation) 3D-Var-based estimate of analysis error variance. The ensemble covariances are localized using an efficient algorithm enabled via a separable formulation of the localization matrix. The authors describe the development and testing of this scheme, which allows for assimilation experiments using differing linear combinations of the static and flow-dependent background error covariances. The tests are performed for two months of summer and two months of winter using operational model resolution and the operational observational dataset, which is dominated by satellite observations. Results show that the hybrid mode data assimilation scheme significantly reduces the forecast error across a wide range of variables and regions. The improvements were particularly pronounced for tropical winds. The verification against radiosondes showed a greater than 0.5% reduction in vector wind RMS differences in areas of statistical significance. The verification against self-analysis showed a greater than 1% reduction from verifying against analyses between 2- and 5-day lead time at all eight vertical levels examined in areas of statistical significance. Using the Navy's summary of verification results, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) scorecard, the improvements resulted in a score (+1) that justifies a major system upgrade.

A new dynamical core for numerical weather prediction (NWP) based on the spectral element method is presented. This paper represents a departure from previously published work on solving the atmospheric primitive equations in that the horizontal operators are all written, discretized, and solved in 3D Cartesian space. The advantages of using Cartesian space are that the pole singularity that plagues the equations in spherical coordinates disappears; any grid can be used, including latitude-longitude, icosahedral, hexahedral, and adaptive unstructured grids; and the conversion to a semi-Lagrangian formulation is easily achieved. The main advantage of using the spectral element method is that the horizontal operators can be approximated by local high-order elements while scaling efficiently on distributed-memory computers. In order to validate the 3D global atmospheric spectral element model, results are presented for seven test cases: three barotropic tests that confirm the exponential accuracy of the horizontal operators and four baroclinic test cases that validate the full 3D primitive hydrostatic equations. These four baroclinic test cases are the Rossby-Haurwitz wavenumber 4, the Held-Suarez test, and the Jablonowski-Williamson balanced initial state and baroclinic instability tests. Comparisons with four operational NWP and climate models demonstrate that the spectral element model is at least as accurate as spectral transform models while scaling linearly on distributed-memory computers.

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Time-dependent variational data assimilation allows the possibility of extracting wind information from observations of ozone or other trace gases. Since trace gas observations are not available at sufficient resolution for deriving feature-track winds, they must be combined with model background information to produce an analysis. If done with time-dependent variational assimilation, wind information may be extracted via the adjoint of the linearized tracer continuity equation. This paper presents idealized experiments that illustrate the mechanics of tracer–wind extraction and demonstrate some of the limitations of this procedure. We first examine tracer–wind extraction using a simple one-dimensional advection equation. The analytic solution for a single trace gas observation is discussed along with numerical solutions for multiple observations. The limitations of tracer–wind extraction are then explored using highly idealized ozone experiments performed with a development version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) in which globally distributed hourly stratospheric ozone profiles are assimilated in a single 6 h update cycle in January 2009. Starting with perfect background ozone conditions, but imperfect dynamical conditions, ozone errors develop over the 6 h background window. Wind increments are introduced in the analysis in order to reduce the differences between background ozone and ozone observations. For "perfect" observations (unbiased and no random error), this results in root-mean-square (RMS) vector wind error reductions of up to ~4 m s⁻¹ in the winter hemisphere and tropics. Wind extraction is more difficult in the summer hemisphere due to weak ozone gradients and smaller background wind errors. The limitations of wind extraction are also explored for observations with imposed random errors and for limited sampling patterns. As expected, the amount of wind information extracted degrades as observation errors or data voids increase. In the case of poorly specified observation error covariances, assimilation of ozone data with imposed errors may result in increased RMS wind error, since the assimilation is constrained too tightly to the noisy observations