To estimate the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) physicians and geriatricians needed to provide medical care in the years 2000 to 2030, we developed utilization-based models of need for non-surgical physicians and need for geriatricians. Based on projected utilization, the number of FTE physicians required to care for the elderly will increase two- or threefold over the next 40 years. Alternate economic scenarios have very little effect on estimates of FTE physicians needed but exert large effects on the projected number of FTE geriatricians needed. We conclude that during the years 2000 to 2030, population growth will be the major factor determining the number of physicians needed to provide medicare care; economic forces will have a greater influence on the number of geriatricians needed.
To estimate the adequacy of current and future supply of geriatrics faculty, we conducted a national survey to determine the current supply of geriatrics faculty in five specialties and compared these estimates to standards for optimal faculty supply in geriatrics. Finally, we generated a model to project future faculty supply based on both current training capacity and differing assumptions regarding future training capacity. Our findings indicate that the current supply of geriatrics physician faculty is less than half the number needed in each specialty. (Existing numbers range from a high of 909 faculty in internal medicine to a low of 86 in physical medicine.) Moreover, given the current capacity for training, there will be a net loss of such faculty each year in each specialty. We conclude that the number of geriatrics faculty currently available is insufficient to provide an appropriate "core" level of geriatrics training for all undergraduate medical students and residents in relevant residency programs. In addition, the current training capacity for geriatrics faculty cannot even sustain the current level of faculty over the next 10 years. To correct the current and future deficit, substantial increases in both geriatrics fellowship positions and mid-career training positions will be necessary.
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