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a b s t r a c tWell-estimated elasticities of demand are important for making long-run projections in demand for forest products. In this research, cluster analysis is used to group 180 countries contained within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), using cross-sectional data for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), forest coverage, and per capita consumption of forest products, for forest products including plywood, particleboard, fiberboard, newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard. The application of cluster analysis prior to estimating the elasticities of demand solves the problem of data availability in estimating elasticities by grouping countries based on variables identified from economics theory and enabling the extension of elasticity estimates to countries that are similar to others in a cluster, but without data for directly estimating elasticties. Mean absolute deviation is used for data standardization, and the k-medoids approach and silhouette technique are used in cluster analysis. Statistics of clusters for every forest product show various combinations of countries with similar levels of per capita GDP, forest coverage, and consumption, such as a cluster with high per capita GDP, low forest coverage, and high consumption of the discussed forest product. The results of the cluster analysis are validated by a one-way analysis of means and multiple comparisons. Countries for panel analysis are selected based on time series data availability and quality. As implied by cluster analysis, some of the countries in the cluster can be used to represent the whole cluster. In this research, longrun static models, short-run dynamic models, and long-run dynamic models of demand are estimated using panel data analysis for countries in each cluster using data from 1992 to 2007 and 9 to 44 countries in each cluster. We found that long-run dynamic elasticities are higher than short-run dynamic estimations, and dynamic model estimations outperform static model estimations as shown in RMSE statistics.

This study analyzes the effects of the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) on the restoration of forest resources in the northeastern forest region of China, an important region because of its ecological and geographical location and timber supply in China, by using panel data sets of 35 forest farms of state-owned forest enterprises. Panel data analysis results show that related policies under the NFPP have had positive effects on forest resources. Planting activity had a statistically signifi cant effect on forest growth and could be reinforced continually by planting tree species suitable for a warming climate in temperate forests. Forest management and protection played a powerful role in increasing the growing stock of the forests. In NFPP areas timber harvests, after implementation of the NFPP, were a positive factor in increasing forest resources if the harvests combined effective tending and thinning under a carefully guided management plan.

Aii Analysis of the Socio-Economic Affecting Global Forest Area Changes 'Ibtsuya Michinaka 'iandMotoe Miyamoto '2 msSIRAcr This study examined the impacts ot socio-economic factors on forest area change by human development 1ffvel of countries. Cluster analysis and panel data analysis were combined to solve the problem of heterogeneity in panel data analysis and the problem ef data availability to some extent, The results show that many soci}economic factors have negative impacts on forest area in counhies at low levels of human develepment, but their impacts become positive in countries at higher levels of human development, such as rate ef rural population, adult literacy rate, and GDP per capita. The findings ot this research remind decision makers to pay attention to increasing countries' level of human development when atternpting te prevent deforestation, because people in higher human development index countries tend to be more protective offorests. Kleytvonts: human development, socio-economic factors, deforestation, cluster analysis, panel data analysis INIIIODUenON People treat forests differently at different stages of human development. These diflerences can be seen throughout theusands of years of httman history and in changes in forest area ever the past twe decades in counnies at different stages ofdevelopment, Global forest area has been decreasing, Although the pace of this decline has slowed, 83 million ha of forest disappeared from 1990 to 2000, and 52 millien ha of forest were eliminated between 2000 and 2elO, according te FRA2010 (FAO, 201e). The countries with the largest decreases in forest area in the past two decades include Bruzil (55.3 million ha), Indonesia (24.1 million ha), Nigeria (8.2 mi11ien ha) and Tbuizania (8.1 million ha) . Of the 233 countries and regions Iisted in FRA2010, forest area decreased in 88 countries and increased or remained stable in 136 countries (forest area data are not available tor remaining countries). Numerous studies have examined the relationship between forest resources and socio-econemic factors, from macro-level analyses utilizing multinational data to micro-level analyses based on field investigations. In particular, poverty (er ecenomic level) and

Clarifying factors affecting forest area changes is critical to implementing REDD+ scheme properly. We analyzed some socio-economic factors and clarified their relationships with deforestation in Cambodia for the period of 2002 to 2010. A panel data analysis was conducted for 18 provinces, while six other provinces were deleted from the list because only a small amount of their land was forested. Time effects, cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors, and heteroskedasticity were tested, and robust variance matrix estimations were obtained to solve the problems of heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The model estimation results showed that population, gross agricultural production and large-scale plantation development have negative impacts on forest area changes. On the other hand, the impacts of rice cultivation, gross industrial production, household income and house floor area by household were found not to be significant. Overall, however, the results indicated that forests in Cambodia still face pressure from the increases in population, agriculture production, and the enlargement of land development. As the increase in productivity of agriculture gives a better use of current agricultural land and lessens the pressure on forest, intensifying agriculture is important. It is also important to develop industry and other economic ventures to grow national economy while not imposing pressure on forest. This research reminds decision makers to use discretion when developing large-scale plantations