Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in response to higher temperatures can also create unequal opportunities to adapt.
Air Conditioning (AC) appliances are a highly effective adaptation strategy to rising temperatures, thus making future climate conditions an important driver of space cooling energy demand. The main goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on Cooling Degree Days computed with wetbulb temperature (CDD wb ) and household space cooling demand in Brazil. We compare the needs under three specific warming levels (SWLs) scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C) to a baseline with historically observed meteorological parameters by combining CDD wb projections with an end-use model to evaluate the energy requirements of air conditioning. The effects of the climate change were isolated, and no future expansion in AC ownership considered. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions associated with AC energy demand are also calculated. Results show an increase in both average CDD wb and AC electricity consumption for the global warming scenarios in all Brazilian regions. The Northern region shows the highest increase in CDD wb (187% in CDD wb for SWL 4°C), while the Southeast presents the highest AC energy consumption response (326% in the AC energy consumption for SWL 4°C) compared to the baseline. At the national level, CDD wb and the AC energy consumption in all SWLs scenarios grow by 70%, 99% and 190%, respectively.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.