Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified persons at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text).

Despite widespread use of the bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of global mortality from a single infectious agent (Mycobacterium tuberculosis or Mtb). Here, over two independent Mtb challenge studies, we demonstrate that subcutaneous vaccination of rhesus macaques (RMs) with rhesus cytomegalovirus vectors encoding Mtb antigen inserts (hereafter referred to as RhCMV/TB)-which elicit and maintain highly effector-differentiated, circulating and tissue-resident Mtb-specific CD4 and CD8 memory T cell responses-can reduce the overall (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) extent of Mtb infection and disease by 68%, as compared to that in unvaccinated controls, after intrabronchial challenge with the Erdman strain of Mtb at ∼1 year after the first vaccination. Fourteen of 34 RhCMV/TB-vaccinated RMs (41%) across both studies showed no TB disease by computed tomography scans or at necropsy after challenge (as compared to 0 of 17 unvaccinated controls), and ten of these RMs were Mtb-culture-negative for all tissues, an exceptional long-term vaccine effect in the RM challenge model with the Erdman strain of Mtb. These results suggest that complete vaccine-mediated immune control of highly pathogenic Mtb is possible if immune effector responses can intercept Mtb infection at its earliest stages.