SummaryBackgroundCancer is a major cause of death in children worldwide, and the recorded incidence tends to increase with time. Internationally comparable data on childhood cancer incidence in the past two decades are scarce. This study aimed to provide internationally comparable local data on the incidence of childhood cancer to promote research of causes and implementation of childhood cancer control.MethodsThis population-based registry study, devised by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in collaboration with the International Association of Cancer Registries, collected data on all malignancies and non-malignant neoplasms of the CNS diagnosed before age 20 years in populations covered by high-quality cancer registries with complete data for 2001–10. Incidence rates per million person-years for the 0–14 years and 0–19 years age groups were age-adjusted using the world standard population to provide age-standardised incidence rates (WSRs), using the age-specific incidence rates (ASR) for individual age groups (0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years). All rates were reported for 19 geographical areas or ethnicities by sex, age group, and cancer type. The regional WSRs for children aged 0–14 years were compared with comparable data obtained in the 1980s.FindingsOf 532 invited cancer registries, 153 registries from 62 countries, departments, and territories met quality standards, and contributed data for the entire decade of 2001–10. 385 509 incident cases in children aged 0–19 years occurring in 2·64 billion person-years were included. The overall WSR was 140·6 per million person-years in children aged 0–14 years (based on 284 649 cases), and the most common cancers were leukaemia (WSR 46·4), followed by CNS tumours (WSR 28·2), and lymphomas (WSR 15·2). In children aged 15–19 years (based on 100 860 cases), the ASR was 185·3 per million person-years, the most common being lymphomas (ASR 41·8) and the group of epithelial tumours and melanoma (ASR 39·5). Incidence varied considerably between and within the described regions, and by cancer type, sex, age, and racial and ethnic group. Since the 1980s, the global WSR of registered cancers in children aged 0–14 years has increased from 124·0 (95% CI 123·3–124·7) to 140·6 (140·1–141·1) per million person-years.InterpretationThis unique global source of childhood cancer incidence will be used for aetiological research and to inform public health policy, potentially contributing towards attaining several targets of the Sustainable Development Goals. The observed geographical, racial and ethnic, age, sex, and temporal variations require constant monitoring and research.FundingInternational Agency for Research on Cancer and the Union for International Cancer Control.
Summary1. The Mesopredator Release Hypothesis (MRH) suggests that top predator suppression of mesopredators is a key ecosystem function with cascading impacts on herbivore prey, but it remains to be shown that this top-down cascade impacts the large-scale structure of ecosystems. 2. The Exploitation Ecosystems Hypothesis (EEH) predicts that regional ecosystem structures are determined by top-down exploitation and bottom-up productivity. In contrast to MRH, EEH assumes that interference among predators has a negligible impact on the structure of ecosystems with three trophic levels. 3. We use the recolonization of a top predator in a three-level boreal ecosystem as a natural experiment to test if large-scale biomass distributions and population trends support MRH. Inspired by EEH, we also test if top-down interference and bottom-up productivity impact regional ecosystem structures. 4. We use data from the Finnish Wildlife Triangle Scheme which has monitored top predator (lynx Lynx lynx), mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) and prey (mountain hare Lepus timidus) abundance for 17 years in a 200 000 km 2 study area which covers a distinct productivity gradient. 5. Fox biomass was lower than expected from productivity where lynx biomass was high, whilst hare biomass was lower than expected from productivity where fox biomass was high. Hence, where interference controlled fox abundance, lynx had an indirect positive impact on hare abundance as predicted by MRH. The rates of change indicated that lynx expansion gradually suppressed fox biomass. 6. Lynx status caused shifts between ecosystem structures. In the 'interference ecosystem', lynx and hare biomass increased with productivity whilst fox biomass did not. In the 'mesopredator release ecosystem', fox biomass increased with productivity but hare biomass did not. Thus, biomass controlled top-down did not respond to changes in productivity. This fulfils a critical prediction of EEH. 7. We conclude that the cascade involving top predators, mesopredators and their prey can determine large-scale biomass distribution patterns and regional ecosystem structures. Hence, interference within trophic levels has to be taken into account to understand how terrestrial ecosystem structures are shaped.
Summary1. A stochastic individual-based model for simulating the dynamics of an infectious disease in sympatric red and grey squirrel populations is described. The model simulates the spread of parapoxvirus between squirrels in fragmented populations based on the dispersal of infected animals, the probability of encounters between individuals, exposure to the virus and subsequent mortality. 2. The disease model was integrated with a spatially explicit population dynamics model that simulated red and grey squirrel populations in real landscapes, using habitat information held in a geographical information system. Latin hypercube sampling was used to create a range of realistic life-history and infection scenarios and the model was used to investigate the dynamics of red and grey squirrels in Norfolk between 1966 and 1980. 3. The model predicted that parapoxvirus, like interspeci®c competition, could have led to the extinction of the red squirrel in Norfolk. The results suggest that the red squirrel±grey squirrel±parapoxvirus interaction represents a system of apparent competition mediated by an infectious agent, as seen in other interactions between resident and exotic species. 4. The need for further epidemiological research on the virus is emphasized. We believe that the combined eects on disease transmission of habitat, behaviour and grey squirrels acting as reservoir hosts will lead to a patchy prevalence and sporadic incidence of parapoxvirus disease in red squirrels and a more rapid local replacement by grey squirrels. 5. These results have implications for conservation management of the red squirrel in the UK. Schemes in which animals are translocated or given supplementary feeding may enhance disease spread by bringing infected animals into contact with others.
Accurate predictive modelling of the growth of microbial communities requires the credible representation of the interactions of biological, chemical and mechanical processes. However, although biological and chemical processes are represented in a number of Individual-based Models (IbMs) the interaction of growth and mechanics is limited. Conversely, there are mechanically sophisticated IbMs with only elementary biology and chemistry. This study focuses on addressing these limitations by developing a flexible IbM that can robustly combine the biological, chemical and physical processes that dictate the emergent properties of a wide range of bacterial communities. This IbM is developed by creating a microbiological adaptation of the open source Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS). This innovation should provide the basis for “bottom up” prediction of the emergent behaviour of entire microbial systems. In the model presented here, bacterial growth, division, decay, mechanical contact among bacterial cells, and adhesion between the bacteria and extracellular polymeric substances are incorporated. In addition, fluid-bacteria interaction is implemented to simulate biofilm deformation and erosion. The model predicts that the surface morphology of biofilms becomes smoother with increased nutrient concentration, which agrees well with previous literature. In addition, the results show that increased shear rate results in smoother and more compact biofilms. The model can also predict shear rate dependent biofilm deformation, erosion, streamer formation and breakup.
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