Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant‐nest‐survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six‐year study (1995–2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate = 0.33; male rate = 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest‐age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was −1.08 (95% confidence limits were −2.12, −0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest‐survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Estimation of avian nest survival has traditionally involved simple measures of apparent nest survival or Mayfield constant-nest-survival models. However, these methods do not allow researchers to build models that rigorously assess the importance of a wide range of biological factors that affect nest survival. Models that incorporate greater detail, such as temporal variation in nest survival and covariates representative of individual nests represent a substantial improvement over traditional estimation methods. In an attempt to improve nest survival estimation procedures, we introduce the nest survival model now available in the program MARK and demonstrate its use on a nesting study of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus Townsend) in Montana, USA. We modeled the daily survival of Mountain Plover nests as a function of the sex of the incubating adult, nest age, year, linear and quadratic time trends, and two weather covariates (maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation) during a six-year study (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000). We found no evidence for yearly differences or an effect of maximum daily temperature on the daily nest survival of Mountain Plovers. Survival rates of nests tended by female and male plovers differed (female rate ϭ 0.33; male rate ϭ 0.49). The estimate of the additive effect for males on nest survival rate was 0.37 (95% confidence limits were 0.03, 0.71) on a logit scale. Daily survival rates of nests increased with nest age; the estimate of daily nest-age change in survival in the best model was 0.06 (95% confidence limits were 0.04, 0.09) on a logit scale. Daily precipitation decreased the probability that the nest would survive to the next day; the estimate of the additive effect of daily precipitation on the nest survival rate was Ϫ1.08 (95% confidence limits were Ϫ2.12, Ϫ0.13) on a logit scale. Our approach to modeling daily nest-survival rates allowed several biological factors of interest to be easily included in nest survival models and allowed us to generate more biologically meaningful estimates of nest survival.

Precocial young often experience high mortality prior to achieving flight, especially in the first days after hatching. We quantified relationships between chick age, survival, behavior, and response to natural and anthropogenic danger for the threatened Western Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) in coastal northern California, USA. Plover chicks were most likely to die in the first three days of their 28-day prefledging period, especially on sandy ocean beaches compared to coarser substrates of river habitats. Chick survival in both habitats increased across the ∼120-day chick-rearing period. Improved survival of older chicks coincided with an age-related reduction in brooding and increased distance from the tending parent, which was not related to season. Lower survival of younger chicks was correlated with a tendency to lie motionless when approached by humans; nearly all older chicks responded to human approach by running to evade danger. Chicks of all ages were more likely to lie motionless when potential avian predators flew nearby. Agedependent survival of Snowy Plover chicks paralleled a trend of increasing development, thermal independence from adults, and capability of evading predators. Abstract. Precocial young often experience high mortality prior to achieving flight, especially in the first days after hatching. We quantified relationships between chick age, survival, behavior, and response to natural and anthropogenic danger for the threatened Western Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) in coastal northern California, USA. Plover chicks were most likely to die in the first three days of their 28-day prefledging period, especially on sandy ocean beaches compared to coarser substrates of river habitats. Chick survival in both habitats increased across the ,120-day chick-rearing period. Improved survival of older chicks coincided with an age-related reduction in brooding and increased distance from the tending parent, which was not related to season. Lower survival of younger chicks was correlated with a tendency to lie motionless when approached by humans; nearly all older chicks responded to human approach by running to evade danger. Chicks of all ages were more likely to lie motionless when potential avian predators flew nearby. Age-dependent survival of Snowy Plover chicks paralleled a trend of increasing development, thermal independence from adults, and capability of evading predators.Key words: antipredator behavior, Charadrius alexandrinus, chick survival, habitat quality, human disturbance, predation danger, Snowy Plover. Supervivencia Relativa a la Edad y Comportamiento de los Pichones deCharadrius alexandrinusResumen. Los pichones precociales usualmente experimentan una alta mortalidad antes de adquirir la capacidad del vuelo, especialmente en los primeros días luego de eclosionar. Cuantificamos la relació n entre la edad del pichó n, la supervivencia, el comportamiento y la respuesta a peligros naturales y antropogénicos para la especie amenazada Charadrius ...

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