This study is motivated by the great importance of Cbs for aviation safety. The study investigates the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) filtering for the remote sensing of Cumulonimbus Clouds (Cbs) by implementation of about 30 different experiments, covering Central Europe. These experiments compile different stability filter settings as well as the use of different channels for the InfraRed (IR) brightness temperatures (BT). As stability filters, parameters from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) are used. The application of the stability filters restricts the detection of Cbs to regions with a labile atmosphere. Various NWP filter settings are investigated in the experiments. The brightness temperature information results from the infrared (IR) Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Image (SEVIRI) instrument on-board of the Meteosat Second Generation satellite and enables the detection of very cold and high clouds close to the tropopause. Various satellite channels and BT thresholds are applied in the different experiments. The satellite only approaches (no NWP filtering) result in the detection of Cbs with a relative high probability of detection, but unfortunately combined with a large False Alarm Rate (FAR), leading to a Critical Success Index (CSI) below 60% for the investigated summer period in 2016. The false alarms result from other types of very cold and high clouds. It is shown that the false alarms can be significantly decreased by application of an appropriate NWP stability filter, leading to the increase of CSI to about 70% for 2016. CSI is increased from about 70 to about 75% by application of NWP filtering for the other investigated summer period in 2017. A brief review and reflection of the literature clarify that the function of the NWP filter can not be replaced by MSG IR spectroscopy. Thus, NWP filtering is strongly recommended to increase the quality of satellite based Cb detection. Further, it has been shown that the well established convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convection index (KO) work well as a stability filter.
This study presents a novel approach for the early detection of developing thunderstorms. To date, methods for the detection of developing thunderstorms have usually relied on accurate Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) for the estimation of the cooling rates of convective clouds, which correspond to the updraft strengths of the cloud objects. In this study, we present a method for the estimation of the updraft strength that does not rely on AMVs. The updraft strength is derived directly from the satellite observations in the SEVIRI water vapor channels. For this purpose, the absolute value of the vector product of spatio-temporal gradients of the SEVIRI water vapor channels is calculated for each satellite pixel, referred to as Normalized Updraft Strength (NUS). The main idea of the concept is that vertical updraft leads to NUS values significantly above zero, whereas horizontal cloud movement leads to NUS values close to zero. Thus, NUS is a measure of the strength of the vertical updraft and can be applied to distinguish between advection and convection. The performance of the method has been investigated for two summer periods in 2016 and 2017 by validation with lightning data. Values of the Critical Success Index (CSI) of about 66% for 2016 and 60% for 2017 demonstrate the good performance of the method. The Probability of Detection (POD) values for the base case are 81.8% for 2016 and 89.2% for 2017, respectively. The corresponding False Alarm Ratio (FAR) values are 22.6% (2016) and 36.4% (2017), respectively. In summary, the method has the potential to reduce forecast lead time significantly and can be quite useful in regions without a well-maintained radar network.
Thunderstorms are among the most common and most dangerous meteorological hazards in the world. They cause lightning and can lead to strong wind gusts, squall lines, hail and heavy precipitation combined with flooding, and therefore pose a threat to health and life, can cause enormous property damage and also endanger flight safety. Monitoring and forecast of thunderstorms are, therefore, important topics. In this work, a novel method for the detection and forecast of thunderstorms and strong convection is presented. The detection is based on the global GLD360 lightning data in combination with satellite information from the satellite series Meteosat, HIMAWARI and GOES, covering the complete geostationary ring. Three severity levels are defined depending on the occurrence of lightning and the brightness temperature difference of the water vapour channels and the infrared window channel (∼10.8 μm). The detection of thunderstorms and strong convection is the basis for the nowcasting up to 2 h, which is performed with the optical flow method TV-L1. This method provides the needed atmospheric motion vectors for the extrapolation of the thunderstorm movement. Both, the validation results as well as the feedback of the customers show the great value of the new NowCastSat-Aviation (NCS-A) method. For example, the Critical Success Index (CSI) is, with 0.64, still quite high for the 60 minute forecast of severe thunderstorms. The method is operated 24/7 by the German Weather Service (DWD), and is used to provide thunderstorm information to aviation customers and the central weather forecast unit of DWD.
The predictability of aviation turbulence is influenced by energy-intensive flow patterns that are significantly smaller than the horizontal grid scale of current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The parameterization of these subgrid scale (SGS) processes is possible by means of an additional prognostic equation for the temporal change of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), whereby scale transfer terms are used. This turbulence scheme has been applied operationally for 5 years in the NWP model ICON (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic). The most important of the source terms parameterizes the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, better known as clear air turbulence. This shear term was subjected to a nowcasting technique, is calculated with satellite data, and shifted forward in time using motion based on optical flow estimates and atmospheric motion vector (AMV). The nowcasts include turbulence altitude as determined by an adapted height assignment scheme presented here. The case studies illustrate that the novel approach for satellite-based turbulence nowcasting is a supplement to the NWP models.
Thunderstorms are among the most common and most dangerous meteorological hazards in the world. They cause lightning and can lead to strong wind gusts, squall lines, hail and heavy precipitation combined with flooding, and therefore pose a threat to health and life, can cause enormous property damage and also endanger flight savety. Monitoring and forecast of thunderstorms are therefore important topics. In this work a novel method for the detection and forecast of thunderstorms and strong convection is presented. The detection is based on the global GLD360 lightning data in combination with satellite information from the satellite series Meteosat, HIMAWAARI and GOES, covering the complete geostationary ring. Three severity levels are defined depending on the occurrence of lightning and the brightness temperature difference of the water vapour channels and the infrared window channel (∼ 10.8 μm). The detection of thunderstorms and strong convection is the basis for the nowcasting up to 2 hours, which is performed with the optical flow method TV-L1. This method provides the needed atmospheric motion vectors for the extrapolation of the thunderstorm movement. Both, the validation results as well as the feedback of the customers show the great value of the new NowCastSat-Aviation (NCS-A) method. For example, the Critical Success Index (CSI) is with 0.64 still quite high for the 60 minute forecast of severe thunderstorms. The method is operated 24/7 by the German Weather Service (DWD) and used to provide thunderstorm information to aviation customers and the central weather forecast unit of DWD.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.