This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
This paper analyses the impact of vocational specificity on school-to-work transitions in terms of initial job mismatches and socioeconomic status at the individual level. Considering heterogeneity amongst the various qualifications in Austria, the study finds that the positive impact of specificity on initial labour market placement known from cross-country research also holds within the highly stratified Austrian system in which various vocational specialisations are provided at the upper secondary level. Independent of the level and field of the qualification obtained, vocational specificity facilitates initial labour market placement, resulting in a reduced mismatch risk and an increase in initial jobs status. In the course of subsequent labour market adjustments, however, holders of general qualifications attain higher status gains when changing jobs. Likewise, the overqualified can make up for a good part of their initial status penalty on labour market entrance through job changes. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.2
This article studies the relationship between employee training and institutional factors of initial skill formation and industrial relations across 14 European countries. Rather than focusing on individual participation rates and returns, the aim is to explain the observed country variation in training incidence and its returns. It turns out that there are direct links between the system of initial skill formation and training that differ between incidence and returns. Although cross-country training incidence seems to vary according to educational attainment levels and the financial input into education, the returns to training are strongly associated with the quality and stratification of secondary schooling. This finding suggests that the aggregate level of training provided is associated with educational attainment levels in terms of skill demand as well as educational expenditure, whereas training-related productivity gains are higher in systems in which school leavers and the workforce actually do possess higher skills. Educational stratification seems to increase inequality beyond education by increasing training-related earnings differentials.2
This study comparatively analyses inequalities in educational outcomes as well as education effects on the occupational status of prime-age workers across 21 countries. Considering two distinct aspects of educational outcomes-credentials and measured worker skills-the study's main role is to assess their partial effects on occupational placement, contingent on social origin. Overall, parental education effects on educational achievement in terms of both credentials and skills are large. Likewise, occupational status is strongly associated with educational certificate attained. Labor market placement based on worker skills is significant as well, but to a lesser extent. The individual-level path dependencies of origin-education and education-destination vary considerably across countries. In part, this variation is associated with a country's skills formation system in terms of vocational specialization and the degree of economic coordination as measured by bargaining coordination. In line with prior research, vocational specificity relates to increased educational inequality. In addition, the study finds that economic coordination mitigates educational inequality as it reduces the intergenerational transmission of certificates and skills. In systems in which vocational specificity is accompanied by a high degree of coordination, the detrimental inequality effect of vocational specificity tends to level off. Moreover, economic coordination facilitates occupational placement based on worker skills. A concise discussion of the policy implications concludes this paper.
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