An ensemble of regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Down-scaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-East Asia) was analysed to evaluate the ability of 5 regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble mean in reproducing the key features of present day precipitation (1989−2008). We emphasised (1) an extreme rainfall event, (2) seasonal cli-matology, (3) annual cycles and inter-annual variability and (4) the monsoon characteristics. We highlighted 4 sub-monsoon regions, viz. South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAS), the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EAS), the Western North Pacific Tropical Monsoon (WNP) and the Australian-Maritime Continent Monsoon (AUSMC). We found that the RCMs showed a reasonable performance to capture the extreme rainfall event in 1998. The RCMs simulated the seasonal mean, annual cycle and inter-annual variability acceptably. However, individual models exhibited significant biases in some sub-regions and seasons. Moreover, most of the RCMs significantly improved their performance in capturing precipitation climatology and monsoon characteristics over the Korean Peninsula, the Korea Strait and southern Japan. Based upon this performance study, we conclude that the present set of RCMs from CORDEX can be used to provide useful information on climate projections over East Asia.

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The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40) data for the period from 1958 to 2001. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns. The focus in this paper is on the validation of the long-term summer monsoon climatology and its variability concerning circulation, temperature, and precipitation. Additionally, the monsoonal behavior in simulations for wet and dry years has been investigated and compared against several observational data sets. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic reproduction of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded precipitation data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40.

Abstract:The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied over the Asian continent from 0ºN to 50ºN and 42ºE to 110ºE to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under past and present-day conditions. The model is driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by the atmospheric output fields of the global coupled Earth system model ECHAM5-JSBACH/MPIOM for 44-years-long time slices during the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial present-day climate. Simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50 km are carried out to analyze the regional monsoon patterns under different external solar forcing and climatic conditions. The focus is on the investigation of the HIRHAM simulated summer monsoon circulation and the comparison of the regional atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between the paleo-and the preindustrial climate. Due to mid-Holocene changes in the atmospheric circulation with a reduced and southward shifted monsoonal flow across Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, an increase of summer rainfall at the windward slopes of western and southern Himalayas as well as over southern India and decreased rainfall over central India appear which is in agreement with proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions. During the mid-Holocene as well as for the present-day climate the same driving mechanisms for the summer monsoon in extreme wet monsoon years related to regional SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean and convective processes can be verified. Positive (negative) SST anomalies in the northern Indian Ocean enhance (inhibit) the local convection associated with a deepening (weakening) of the low pressure and trigger wet (dry) rainfall anomalies.

The general circulation model ECHAM5 has been used to simulate the Indian monsoon and its variability during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 900–1100 AD), the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1515–1715 AD) and for recent climate (REC; 1800–2000 AD). The focus is on the analysis of external drivers and internal feedbacks leading to extreme rainfall events over India from interannual to multidecadal time scale. An evaluation of spatiotemporal monsoon patterns with present-day observation data is in agreement with other state-of-the-art monsoon modeling studies. The simulated monsoon intensity on multidecadal time scale is weakened (enhanced) in summer (winter) due to colder (warmer) SSTs in the Indian Ocean. Variations in solar insolation are the main drivers for these SST anomalies, verified by very strong temporal anticorrelations between Total Solar Irradiance and All-India-Monsoon-Rainfall in summer monsoon months. The external solar forcing is coupled and overlain by internal climate modes of the ocean (ENSO and IOD) with asynchronous intensities and lengths of periods. <br><br> In addition, the model simulations have been compared with a relative moisture index derived from paleoclimatic reconstructions based on various proxies and archives in India. In this context, the Lonar record in Central India has been highlighted and evaluated the first time. The simulated relative annual rainfall anomalies in comparison to present-day climate are in agreement (disagreement) with the reconstructed moisture index for MWP (LIA) climate. <br><br> In order to investigate the interannual monsoon variability with respect to monsoon failures, dry summer monsoon composites for 30-yr-long periods of MWP, LIA and REC have been further analysed. Within dry years of LIA, the summer rainfall over India and surrounding oceans is less than in MWP indicating stronger drying conditions due to a stronger summer solar insolation forcing coupled with variations in ENSO. To quantify the ECHAM5 simulated long-term drought conditions within Monsoon Asia, the Palmer Drought Severity Index has been additionally estimated for recent climate showing strong pattern correlation between global SST anomalies and EOF variability signal of the drought index, whereas the temporal relationship is weak