Estimation for weather-related failure probability of overhead transmission lines is essential in the reliability assessment of a power system. This paper analyzes the outage and weather data of 110 kV overhead transmission lines in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China during 2011-2014. The result reveals obvious uneven distributions of outage events for time and space due to the spatial and temporal variation of severe weather. Based on the results, an estimation method is proposed in this paper. Split and aggregation is used to smooth the outage and weather data. The poisson model is adopted in our method to investigate the statistic characteristics of transmission line outage events. Regression analysis is applied to obtain the correlation between the weather intensity and history failure rate. Furthermore the method proposed is validated against the empirical outage data.
Overhead transmission lines are important parts of a power system; their operation state directly affects the reliability level of the entire power system. With the in-depth development of state maintenance work for power grids, correctly evaluating the reliability of overhead transmission lines is the key to successful maintenance. A maintenance decision model for transmission lines is established in this study based on set pair analysis to achieve human financial control and low maintenance efficiency. Full consideration is provided to the influence of environmental factors, and a theoretical basis for transmission line maintenance decision is established.
Existing researches show that the annual average lightning density is positively correlated with the average trip-out rate of overhead transmission line caused by CG lightning. But the Short-term Cloud-to-Ground Lightning characteristic is unclear, before and after the trip-out happened. Lightning Location System and transmission line trip-out data in 2010 is collected, and CG lightning parameters per hour and the flashover location of transmission line are compared. The stat result shows, the trip-out events of overhead transmission lineswere mainly affected by short-term CG lightning density, followed by short-term CG lightning current amplitude.
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