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Strabismologists are eager to identify preoperative or intraoperative strabismus surgery outcome predictors because of the variable effects in each patient. Conjunctival closure position recession after rectus muscle recession is effective for correcting large angle strabismus. The elasticity of the conjunctiva and Tenon’s capsule is important for strabismus surgery management. In this longitudinal study, we evaluated the prognosis of conjunctiva and Tenon’s capsule thickness (CTT) near the limbus 1 year after strabismus surgery with a limbal conjunctival incision using swept-source anterior segment optical coherence tomography with multiple B-scan averaging. Also, we identified preoperative and/or intraoperative parameters associated with corrective effects 1 year after surgery in 15 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with exotropia or esotropia who underwent recession and resection. The 1-year CTT was greater than the preoperative CTT on the resection side (269 ± 111 vs 183 ± 53 μm, P < 0.001) but was smaller on the recession side (137 ± 54 vs 183 ± 71 μm, P = 0.02). The corrective effect of surgery (1.6 ± 0.3°/mm) was most strongly correlated with preoperative CTT on the recession side ( P = 0.005, β = −0.73). Hence, CTT on the recession side may provide adjunctive information for strabismus treatment.