This research examines the probabilistic safety assessment of the historic BISTOON arch bridge. Probabilistic analysis based on the Load-Resistance model was performed. The evaluation of implicit functions of load and resistance was performed by the finite element method, and the Monte-Carlo approach was used for experiment simulation. The sampling method used was Latin Hypercube. Four random variables were considered including modulus of elasticity of brick and infilled materials and the specific mass of brick and infilled materials. The normal distribution was used to express the statistical properties of the random variables. The coefficient of variation was defined as 10%. Linear behavior was assumed for the bridge materials. Three output parameters of maximum bridge displacement, maximum tensile stress, and minimum compressive stress were assigned as structural limit states. A sensitivity analysis for probabilistic analysis was performed using the Spearman ranking method. The results showed that the sensitivity of output parameters to infilled density changes is high. The results also indicated that the system probability of failure is equal to p fsystem =1.55 × 10−3. The bridge safety index value obtained is βt = 2.96, which is lower than the recommended target safety index. The required safety parameters for the bridge have not been met and the bridge is at the risk of failure.
The survivability of the small-scale fishery and dried fish production in Indian Sundarbans, despite increasing threats posed by climate, environmental, economic, and policy drivers, suggests that they possess certain unique strengths and capabilities. One thread of these strengths is connected to the fact that Sundarbans’ fishery system is strongly anchored in the values and beliefs of the local fishing communities. There is, however, limited empirical information available on the prevailing individual and collective attitudes, expectations, traditions, customs, and, above all, values and beliefs that strongly influence local fishing communities of Sundarbans. This manuscript aims to address this gap by drawing on qualitative data to (1) map the nature of values and beliefs associated with the Sundarbans’ Sagar Island fishing communities who are engaged in small-scale fishery and dried fish production; and (2) highlight the contributions of values and beliefs to the small-scale fishery and dried fish production systems of Sagar Island. Our study reveals that historical factors such as the patriarchal and patrilineal system prevalent in the Indian Sundarbans as well as the current drivers, including environmental and social-economic changes, create inconsistent values and beliefs among male and female members of its society. Issues around values and beliefs are heavily influenced by social-ecological realities comprising material, relational and subjective dimensions. They can range from being strictly personal to largely community-oriented as they are shaped by realities of gender, class, power dynamics, and politics. Values and beliefs are fundamental to human perception and cognition but often get neglected in mainstream literature covering human dimensions of resource management. Our research adds weight to the theoretical and place-based understanding of the contributions of values and beliefs to the small-scale fishery and dried fish production systems. We learn from the case study that values and beliefs can act as mirrors, reflecting the current as well as future realities of small-scale fisheries and dried fish production systems and provide important directions for sustainability and viability of the entire social-ecological system that hosts this sector.
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