We propose a data mining (DM) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. A Portuguese retail bank was addressed, with data collected from 2008 to 2013, thus including the effects of the recent financial crisis. We analyzed a large set of 150 features related with bank client, product and social-economic attributes. A semi-automatic feature selection was explored in the modeling phase, performed with the data prior to July 2012 and that allowed to select a reduced set of 22 features. We also compared four DM models: logistic regression, decision trees (DT), neural network (NN) and support vector machine.Using two metrics, area of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and area of the LIFT cumulative curve (ALIFT), the four models were tested on an evaluation phase, using the most recent data (after July 2012) and a rolling windows scheme. The NN presented the best results (AUC=0.8 and ALIFT=0.7), allowing to reach 79% of the subscribers by selecting the half better classified clients. Also, two knowledge extraction methods, a sensitivity analysis and a DT, were applied to the NN model and revealed several key attributes (e.g., Euribor rate, direction of the call and bank agent experience). Such knowledge extraction confirmed the obtained model as credible and valuable for telemarketing campaign managers.

This paper analyzes recent literature in the search for trends in business intelligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in order to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelligence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining procedure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or denial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. * Corresponding author (S. Moro).Email addresses: scmoro@gmail.com (Sérgio Miguel Carneiro Moro), pcortez@dsi.uminho.pt (Paulo Alexandre Ribeiro Cortez), paulo.rita@iscte.pt (Paulo Miguel Rasquinho Ferreira Rita) Preprint submitted to ElsevierOctober 20, 2015 Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of articles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

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The development of the Internet and mobile devices enabled the emergence of travel and hospitality review sites, leading to a large number of customer opinion posts. While such comments may influence future demand of the targeted hotels, they can also be used by hotel managers to improve customer experience. In this article, sentiment classification of an eco-hotel is assessed through a text mining approach using several different sources of customer reviews. The latent Dirichlet allocation modeling algorithm is applied to gather relevant topics that characterize a given hospitality issue by a sentiment. Several findings were unveiled including that hotel food generates ordinary positive sentiments, while hospitality generates both ordinary and strong positive feelings. Such results are valuable for hospitality management, validating the proposed approach.