S U M M A R YField investigations of an ancient fortress wall in southern Myanmar reveal an offset of ∼6 m across the Sagaing fault, the major right-lateral fault between the Sunda and Burma plates. The fault slip rate implied by offset of this 16th-century fortress is between 11 and 18 cm yr -1 . A palaeoseismological excavation within the fortress reveals at least two major fault ruptures since its construction. The slip rate we obtained is comparable to geodetic and geological estimates farther north, but is only 50 per cent of the spreading rate (38 mm yr -1 ) at the Andaman Sea spreading centre. This disparity suggests that other structures may be accommodating deformation within the Burma Plate. We propose two fault-slip scenarios to explain the earthquake-rupture history of the southern Sagaing fault. Using both small offset features along the fault trace and historical records, we speculate that the southern Sagaing fault exhibits a uniform-fault-slip behaviour and that one section of the fault could generate a M7+ earthquake within the next few decades.
Summary
The elastic response of the lithosphere to surface mass redistributions produces geodetically measurable deformation of the Earth. This deformation is especially pronounced in South and Southeast Asia, where the annual monsoon produces large-amplitude hydrological loads. The Myanmar-India-Bangladesh-Bhutan (MIBB) network of about 20 continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations, established in 2011, provides an opportunity to study the Earth's response to these loads. In this study, we use GRACE temporal gravity products as an estimate of long-wavelength surface water distribution and use this estimate in an elastic loading calculation. We compare the predicted vertical deformation from GRACE with that observed with GNSS. We find that elastic loading inferred from the GRACE gravity model is able to explain the phase and much of the peak-to-peak amplitude (typically 2–3 cm) of the vertical GNSS oscillations, especially in northeast India and central Myanmar. GRACE-based corrections reduce the RMS scatter of the GNSS data by 30–45 per cent in these regions. However, this approach does not capture all of the seasonal deformation in central Bangladesh and southern Myanmar. We show by a synthetic test that local hydrological effects may explain discrepancies between the GNSS and GRACE signals in these places. Two independent hydrological loading models of water stored in soil, vegetation, snow, lakes, and streams display phase lags compared to the GRACE and GNSS observations, perhaps indicating that groundwater contributes to the observed loading in addition to near-surface hydrology. The results of our calculations have implications for survey-mode GNSS measurements, which make up the majority of geodetic measurements in this region. By using the GNSS data together with estimates of hydrological loading from independent observations and models, we may be able to more accurately determine crustal motions caused by tectonic processes in South and Southeast Asia, while also improving our ability to monitor the annual monsoon and resulting water storage changes in the region.
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