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Non-equilibrium evolution of wave fields, as occurring over sudden bathymetry variations, can produce rogue seas with anomalous wave statistics. We handle this process by modifying the Rayleigh distribution through the energetics of second-order theory and a non-homogeneous reformulation of the Khintchine theorem. The resulting probability model reproduces the enhanced tail of the probability distribution of unidirectional wave tank experiments. It also describes why the peak of rogue wave probability appears atop the shoal, and explains the influence of depth on variations in peak intensity. Furthermore, we interpret rogue wave likelihoods in finite depth through the $H$ – $\sigma$ diagram, allowing a quick prediction for the effects of rapid depth change apart from the probability distribution.

No abstract

Shoaling surface gravity waves induce rogue wave formation. Though commonly reduced to water waves passing over a step, nonequilibrium physics allows finite slopes to be considered in this problem. Using nonhomogeneous spectral analysis of a spatially varying energy density ratio, we describe the dependence of the amplification as a function of the slope steepness. Increasing the slope increases the amplification of rogue wave probability until this amplification saturates at steep slopes. In contrast, the increase of the down slope of a subsequent de-shoal zone leads to a monotonic decrease in the rogue wave probability, thus featuring a strong asymmetry between shoaling and de-shoaling zones. Due to the saturation of the rogue wave amplification at steep slopes, our model is applicable beyond its range of validity up to a step, thus elucidating why previous models based on a step could describe the physics of steep finite slopes. We also explain why the rogue wave probability increases over a shoal while it is lower in shallower water.