Environmental predictions in the marine atmospheric surface layer (MASL) are imperative to optimize X‐band radar system performance in marine environments. Evaporation ducts (ED) lead to anomalous propagation where characterization of EDs in the MASL occurs primarily through two methods: in‐situ measurements and numerical modeling. This study investigates the differences in co‐located and synchronous refractivity estimations from the CASPER‐East campaign. Propagation predictions are generated for refractive profiles from in‐situ measurements, Monin‐Obukov boundary layer similarity theory, and numerical weather prediction forecasts. Variations in evaporation duct height (EDH) are found to be a primary driver of differences in propagation between the estimated refractivity profiles, where location of the EDH relative to the transmitter changes the sensitivity of propagation predictions to EDH estimates. Differences in propagation are large when EDH estimates span the transmitter height and the lowest EDH across the methods is small, regardless of how much variation there is in EDH estimates. When the lowest EDH is small and EDH estimates span the transmitter height there are differences in physical regimes causing large propagation discrepancies–for example, leakage into versus trapping within the duct. Variation in EDH between the methods is greatest in stable environments. M‐deficit and curvature of the refractive profiles also influence propagation specifically in scenarios when EDH spans the transmitter. When all EDHs are below the transmitter, EDH variance is the primary contributor to propagation variance, but M‐deficit and profile curvature variance play a secondary role. M‐deficits and curvature between the methods agree most often during periods of atmospheric stability.

Dynamic refractive environments within the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) pose difficulties in the prediction of X‐band radar wave propagation due to natural phenomena such as evaporation ducts (ED). This study utilizes a unique data set collected during the Coupled Air‐Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER)‐East field campaign, including multiple refractivity estimation methods and twelve point‐to‐point (PTP) electromagnetic datasets, to assess the efficacy of PTP inversion techniques for remote sensing of atmospheric refractivity within the MABL. Comparison of refractivity between the inverse and other refractivity methods show reasonable evaporation duct height estimates by the inversion, and inverse‐based propagation predictions are also shown to be more accurate than propagation based on other refractivity prediction methods: numerical weather prediction, theory, and in situ atmospheric measurements. These results propose the effectiveness of a PTP metaheuristic radar inversion to remotely sense refractive environments from radar propagation measurements in stable and unstable atmospheric conditions.