Australian dryland rivers are acknowledged as being among the most variable and unpredictable in the world in terms of their flow regimes. Although renowned for their spectacular floods over vast and complex floodplains, rivers exist for much of the time as discrete waterholes, which are important refugia for aquatic biota. Recent work has shown that waterholes are filled by surface flows and there is little evidence of groundwater contributions. The permanence of these refugia is largely determined by waterhole morphology and evaporative loss, and some waterholes can clearly persist for 2 years or more without surface flow connection. As a consequence, the spatial distribution of refugia for aquatic biota is determined not only by the physical template but also by the duration of dry spells and the timing of flow events. Flow variability also has a major influence on aquatic production in these systems and ultimately influences food availability for fish and other consumers. During dry spells, aquatic food webs in waterholes are largely supported by algal production in the shallow littoral zone. At the other extreme, during floods, the boom of aquatic production on floodplains provides an immense food resource. However, there are many occasions when in-channel flows (flow pulses) result in periods where neither of these sources of production is likely to be available. Although such flow pulses are essential for the physical persistence and connectivity of waterholes, we propose that they may lead to food limitation and stress for populations of fish and other consumers. Water resource development in dryland rivers often leads to an increase in the frequency and duration of flow pulses, due to reduced floods and elevated base flows. This increase in the 'bits in between' natural boom or bust conditions may help to explain the observed decline in ecosystem health in dryland river systems with significant water resource development.

Riparian ecosystems in the 21 st Century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation 'hotspots' as the century unfolds.

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1. This paper explores soil seed bank composition and its contribution to the vegetation dynamics of a hydrologically variable desert floodplain in central Australia: the Cooper Creek floodplain. We investigated patterns in soil seed bank composition both temporally, in response to flooding (and drying), and spatially, with relation to flood frequency. Correlations between extant vegetation and soil seed bank composition are explored with respect to flooding. 2. A large and diverse germinable soil seed bank was detected comprising predominantly annual monocot and annual forb species. Soil seed bank composition did not change significantly in response to a major flood event but some spatial patterns were detected along a broad flood frequency gradient. Soil seed bank samples from frequently flooded sites had higher total germinable seed abundance and a greater abundance of annual monocots than less frequently flooded sites. In contrast, germinable seeds of perennial species belonging to the Poaceae family were most abundant in soil seed bank samples from rarely flooded sites. 3. Similarity between the composition of the soil seed bank and extant vegetation increased following flooding and was greatest in more frequently flooded areas of the floodplain, reflecting the establishment of annual species. The results indicate that persistent soil seed banks enable vegetation in this arid floodplain to respond to unpredictable patterns of flooding and drying.

The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these concepts in future research and management applications should include evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Explicit consideration should also be given to whether observed temporal dynamics represent variation along a continuum rather than categorically different states.