It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2°C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Clonally transmissible cancers are somatic cell lineages that are spread between individuals via the transfer of living cancer cells. There are only three known naturally occurring transmissible cancers, and these affect dogs, soft-shell clams, and Tasmanian devils, respectively. The Tasmanian devil transmissible facial cancer was first observed in 1996, and is threatening its host species with extinction. Until now, this disease has been consistently associated with a single aneuploid cancer cell lineage that we refer to as DFT1. Here we describe a second transmissible cancer, DFT2, in five devils located in southern Tasmania in 2014 and 2015. DFT2 causes facial tumors that are grossly indistinguishable but histologically distinct from those caused by DFT1. DFT2 bears no detectable cytogenetic similarity to DFT1 and carries a Y chromosome, which contrasts with the female origin of DFT1. DFT2 shows different alleles to both its hosts and DFT1 at microsatellite, structural variant, and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) loci, confirming that it is a second cancer that can be transmitted between devils as an allogeneic, MHC-discordant graft. These findings indicate that Tasmanian devils have spawned at least two distinct transmissible cancer lineages and suggest that transmissible cancers may arise more frequently in nature than previously considered. The discovery of DFT2 presents important challenges for the conservation of Tasmanian devils and raises the possibility that this species is particularly prone to the emergence of transmissible cancers. More generally, our findings highlight the potential for cancer cells to depart from their hosts and become dangerous transmissible pathogens.

1. Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8–10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.

BackgroundThe Tasmanian devil, the world’s largest carnivorous marsupial, is at risk of extinction due to devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), a fatal contagious cancer. The Save the Tasmanian Devil Program has established an insurance population, which currently holds over 600 devils in captive facilities across Australia. Microbes are known to play a crucial role in the health and well-being of humans and other animals, and increasing evidence suggests that changes in the microbiota can influence various aspects of host physiology and development. To improve our understanding of devils and facilitate management and conservation of the species, we characterised the microbiome of wild devils and investigated differences in the composition of microbial community between captive and wild individuals.ResultsA total of 1,223,550 bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) sequences were generated via Roche 454 sequencing from 56 samples, including 17 gut, 15 skin, 18 pouch and 6 oral samples. The devil’s gut microbiome was dominated by Firmicutes and showed a high Firmicutes-to-Bacteroidetes ratio, which appears to be a common feature of many carnivorous mammals. Metabolisms of carbohydrates, amino acids, energy, cofactors and vitamins, nucleotides and lipids were predicted as the most prominent metabolic pathways that the devil's gut flora contributed to. The microbiota inside the female’s pouch outside lactation was highly similar to that of the skin, both co-dominated by Firmicutes and Proteobacteria. The oral microbiome had similar proportions of Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes and Fusobacteria.ConclusionsCompositional differences were observed in all four types of microbiota between devils from captive and wild populations. Certain captive devils had significantly lower levels of gut bacterial diversity than wild individuals, and the two groups differed in the proportion of gut bacteria accounting for the metabolism of glycan, amino acids and cofactors and vitamins. Further studies are underway to investigate whether alterations in the microbiome of captive devils can have impacts on their ability to adapt and survive following re-introduction to the wild.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40168-015-0143-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Identifying the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes is a central goal of modern biology, particularly for disease-related traits. Genome-wide association methods are a classical approach for identifying the genomic basis of variation in disease phenotypes, but such analyses are particularly challenging in natural populations due to sample size difficulties. Extensive mark-recapture data, strong linkage disequilibrium and a lethal transmissible cancer make the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) an ideal model for such an association study. We used a RAD-capture approach to genotype 624 devils at ~16,000 loci and then used association analyses to assess the heritability of three cancer-related phenotypes: infection case-control (where cases were infected devils and controls were devils that were never infected), age of first infection and survival following infection. The SNP array explained much of the phenotypic variance for female survival (>80%) and female case-control (>61%). We found that a few large-effect SNPs explained much of the variance for female survival (~5 SNPs explained >61% of the total variance), whereas more SNPs (~56) of smaller effect explained less of the variance for female case-control (~23% of the total variance). By contrast, these same SNPs did not account for a significant proportion of phenotypic variance in males, suggesting that the genetic bases of these traits and/or selection differ across sexes. Loci involved with cell adhesion and cell-cycle regulation underlay trait variation, suggesting that the devil immune system is rapidly evolving to recognize and potentially suppress cancer growth through these pathways. Overall, our study provided necessary data for genomics-based conservation and management in Tasmanian devils.