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Harmful algal blooms (HABs) pose a significant threat to human and marine organism health, and negatively impact coastal economies around the world. An improved understanding of HAB formation and transport is required to improve forecasting skill. A realistic numerical simulation of the US Pacific Northwest region is used to investigate transport pathways from known HAB formation hot spots, specifically for Pseudo-nitzschia (Pn), to the coast. We show that transport pathways are seasonal, with transport to the Washington (WA) coast from a northern source (the Juan de Fuca Eddy) during the summer/fall upwelling season and from a southern source (Heceta Bank) during the winter/early spring due to the predominant wind-driven currents. Interannual variability in transport from the northern source is related to the degree of wind intermittency with more transport during years with more frequent relaxation/downwelling events. The Columbia River plume acts to mitigate transport to the coast as the plume front blocks onshore transport. The plume's influence on alongshore transport is variable although critical in aiding transport from the southern source to the WA coast via plume entrainment. Overall transport from our simulations captures most observed Pn HAB beach events from 2004 to 2007 (characterized by Pseudo-nitzschia cell abundance); however, numerous false positives occur. We show that incorporating phytoplankton biomass results from a coupled biogeochemical model reduces the number of false positives significantly and thus improves our Pn HAB predictions.

The pteropod Limacina helicina frequently experiences seasonal exposure to corrosive conditions (Ωar  < 1) along the US West Coast and is recognized as one of the species most susceptible to ocean acidification (OA). Yet, little is known about their capacity to acclimatize to such conditions. We collected pteropods in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) that differed in the severity of exposure to Ωar conditions in the natural environment. Combining field observations, high-CO2 perturbation experiment results, and retrospective ocean transport simulations, we investigated biological responses based on histories of magnitude and duration of exposure to Ωar < 1. Our results suggest that both exposure magnitude and duration affect pteropod responses in the natural environment. However, observed declines in calcification performance and survival probability under high CO2 experimental conditions do not show acclimatization capacity or physiological tolerance related to history of exposure to corrosive conditions. Pteropods from the coastal CCE appear to be at or near the limit of their physiological capacity, and consequently, are already at extinction risk under projected acceleration of OA over the next 30 years. Our results demonstrate that Ωar exposure history largely determines pteropod response to experimental conditions and is essential to the interpretation of biological observations and experimental results.

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) shelf is the most biologically productive region in the California Current System. A coupled physical-biogeochemical model is used to investigate the influence of freshwater inputs on the productivity of PNW shelf waters using realistic hindcasts and model experiments that omit outflow from the Columbia River and Strait of Juan de Fuca (outlet for the Salish Sea estuary). Outflow from the Strait represents a critical source of nitrogen to the PNW shelf-accounting for almost half of the primary productivity on the Vancouver Island shelf, a third of productivity on the Washington shelf, and a fifth of productivity on the Oregon shelf during the upwelling season. The Columbia River has regional effects on the redistribution of phytoplankton, but does not affect PNW productivity as strongly as does the Salish Sea. A regional nutrient budget shows that nitrogen exiting the Strait is almost entirely (98%) of oceanorigin-upwelled into the Strait at depth, mixed into surface waters by tidal mixing, and returned to the coastal ocean. From the standpoint of nitrogen availability in the coastal euphotic zone, the estuarine circulation driven by freshwater inputs to the Salish Sea is more important than the supply of terrigenous nitrogen by rivers. Nitrogen-rich surface waters exiting the Strait follow two primary pathways-to the northwest in the Vancouver Island Coastal Current and southward toward the Washington and Oregon shelves. Nitrogen flux from the Juan de Fuca Strait and Eddy Region to these shelves is comparable to flux from local wind-driven upwelling.