General practitioners' referral indications for open-access endoscopy did not add any relevant predictive value for endoscopic findings in comparison with what might have been expected from overall prevalence. Only alarm symptoms slightly increased the probability of finding cancer and only reflux-like symptoms slightly increased the probability of finding reflux esophagitis.

Background/Aim: Over the past 15 years, there were considerable changes in factors associated with the development and treatment of upper gastrointestinal symptoms, of which the introduction of proton pump inhibitors and Helicobacter pylori eradication in guidelines for treatment of patients with dyspepsia are the most prominent: findings at open-access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy have not been evaluated properly ever since. This study aims to compare the current prevalence of upper gastrointestinal endoscopic findings to the prevalence 15 years ago. Methods: Data about endoscopic findings of consecutive patients for the first time referred for open-access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy between January 2002 and December 2004 was collected from medical files. The prevalence of each specific finding was compared with data described in three historical populations about 15 years ago. Results: The current and historical study population consisted of 1,286 and 3,062 subjects, respectively. The prevalence of peptic ulcer disease and duodenitis significantly decreased by 12.6% (95% CI: 14.5–10.7) and 2.9% (95% CI: 4.5–1.3), respectively. On the other hand, the prevalence of reflux esophagitis and Barrett’s esophagus both significantly increased by 6.9% (95% CI: 4.2–9.6) and 2.1% (95% CI: 0.8–4.4), respectively. Conclusions: Compared to 15 years ago, the prevalence of specific findings at open-access upper gastrointestinal endoscopy has changed considerably.