In spring‐summer 2005, anomalous atmospheric‐oceanographic coupling caused unprecedented reproductive failures and redistribution of a planktivorous marine bird in both central California (37°N) and southern British Columbia (50°N). At SE Farallon Island, CA, the birds abandoned the breeding colony en masse between 10–20 May, a unique behavioral response; for the first time in 35 years, reproductive success was zero. At Triangle Island, B.C., only 8% of the nesting pairs were successful, the worst year on record. Surveys of birds at sea revealed a peak in relative abundance south of Point Conception (34°N) in summer and fall, suggestive of emigration from the north. Prey (euphausiid crustacean) biomass in the Gulf of the Farallones was reduced, but remained high south of Point Conception. Change in predator and prey may be explained, in part, by unusual atmospheric blocking in the Gulf of Alaska in May, which caused the jet stream to shift southwards resulting in poor upwelling‐favorable winds and anomalously warm SST. This study demonstrates the deleterious consequences of this climate event for a top marine predator in the central‐northern California Current System.

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Summary 1.In order to reproduce successfully in a temporally varying environment, iteroparous animals must exhibit considerable behavioural flexibility across their lifetimes. By adjusting timing of breeding each year, parents can ensure optimal overlap between the energy intensive period of offspring production and the seasonal peak in favourable environmental conditions, thereby increasing their chances of successfully rearing young. 2. Few studies investigate variation among individuals in how they respond to fluctuating conditions, or how selection acts on these individual differences, but this information is essential for understanding how populations will cope with rapid environmental change. 3. We explored inter-annual trends in breeding time and individual responses to environmental variability in common guillemots Uria aalge , an important marine top predator in the highly variable California Current System. Complex, nonlinear relationships between phenology and oceanic and climate variables were found at the population level. Using a novel application of a statistical technique called random regression, we showed that individual females responded in a nonlinear fashion to environmental variability, and that reaction norm shape differed among females. 4. The pattern and strength of selection varied substantially over a 34-year period, but in general, earlier laying was favoured. Females deviating significantly from the population mean laying date each year also suffered reduced breeding success, with the strength of nonlinear selection varying in relation to environmental conditions. 5. We discuss our results in the wider context of an emerging literature on the evolutionary ecology of individual-level plasticity in the wild. Better understanding of how species-specific factors and local habitat features affect the timing and success of breeding will improve our ability to predict how populations will respond to climate change.

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Egg turning is unique to birds and critical for embryonic development in most avian species. Technology that can measure changes in egg orientation and temperature at fine temporal scales (1 Hz) was neither readily available nor small enough to fit into artificial eggs until recently. Here we show the utility of novel miniature data loggers equipped with 3-axis (i.e., triaxial) accelerometers, magnetometers, and a temperature thermistor to study egg turning behavior in free-ranging birds. Artificial eggs containing egg loggers were deployed in the nests of three seabird species for 1–7 days of continuous monitoring. These species (1) turned their eggs more frequently (up to 6.5 turns h−1) than previously reported for other species, but angular changes were often small (1–10° most common), (2) displayed similar mean turning rates (ca. 2 turns h−1) despite major differences in reproductive ecology, and (3) demonstrated distinct diurnal cycling in egg temperatures that varied between 1.4 and 2.4°C. These novel egg loggers revealed high-resolution, three-dimensional egg turning behavior heretofore never measured in wild birds. This new form of biotechnology has broad applicability for addressing fundamental questions in avian breeding ecology, life history, and development, and can be used as a tool to monitor birds that are sensitive to disturbance while breeding.