Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time ( = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection ( = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process.

Rapid phenotypic evolution of quantitative traits can occur within years, but its underlying genetic architecture remains uncharacterized. Here we test the theoretical prediction that genes with intermediate pleiotropy drive adaptive evolution in nature. Through a resurrection experiment, we grew Arabidopsis thaliana accessions collected across an 8-year period in six micro-habitats representative of that local population. We then used genome-wide association mapping to identify the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with evolved and unevolved traits in each micro-habitat. Finally, we performed a selection scan by testing for temporal differentiation in these SNPs. Phenotypic evolution was consistent across micro-habitats, but its associated genetic bases were largely distinct. Adaptive evolutionary change was most strongly driven by a small number of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with intermediate degrees of pleiotropy; this pleiotropy was synergistic with the per-trait effect size of the SNPs, increasing with the degree of pleiotropy. In addition, weak selection was detected for frequent micro-habitat-specific QTLs that shape single traits. In this population, A. thaliana probably responded to local warming and increased competition, in part mediated by central regulators of flowering time. This genetic architecture, which includes both synergistic pleiotropic QTLs and distinct QTLs within particular micro-habitats, enables rapid phenotypic evolution while still maintaining genetic variation in wild populations.

potentially more complex, as the homogenising effects of gene flow must be countered [1][2][3] . The 49 genic model of speciation proposes that specific genetic regions subject to strong divergent 50

The "mustard oil bomb" is a major defense mechanism in the Brassicaceae, which includes crops such as canola and the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. These plants produce and store blends of amino acid-derived secondary metabolites called glucosinolates. Upon tissue rupture by natural enemies, the myrosinase enzyme hydrolyses glucosinolates, releasing defense molecules. Brassicaceae display extensive variation in the mixture of glucosinolates that they produce. To investigate the genetics underlying natural variation in glucosinolate profiles, we conducted a large genomewide association study of 22 methionine-derived glucosinolates using A. thaliana accessions from across Europe. We found that 36% of among accession variation in overall glucosinolate profile was explained by genetic differentiation at only three known loci from the glucosinolate pathway. Glucosinolate-related SNPs were up to 490-fold enriched in the extreme tail of the genome-wide F ST scan, indicating strong selection on loci controlling this pathway. Glucosinolate profiles displayed a striking longitudinal gradient with alkenyl and hydroxyalkenyl glucosinolates enriched in the West. We detected a significant contribution of glucosinolate loci toward general herbivore resistance and lifetime fitness in common garden experiments conducted in France, where accessions are enriched in hydroxyalkenyls. In addition to demonstrating the adaptive value of glucosinolate profile variation, we also detected long-distance linkage disequilibrium at two underlying loci, GS-OH and GS-ELONG. Locally cooccurring alleles at these loci display epistatic effects on herbivore resistance and fitness in ecologically realistic conditions. Together, our results suggest that natural selection has favored a locally adaptive configuration of physically unlinked loci in Western Europe.Arabidopsis thaliana | glucosinolates | genome-wide association mapping | linkage disequilibrium | adaptation