RESUMOCaracterizou-se a brucelose bovina em Mato Grosso por meio de um estudo transversal realizado em 2003 para auxiliar na implementação do Programa Nacional [7.4-13.1%], respectively. In the productive regions, the prevalence of infected herds were 36.9% [29.2-45.2%], 27.2% [22.8-32.1%], 40.4% [38.8-46.2%], and 50.3% [44.5-56

In 2009, the epidemiological situation of bovine tuberculosis was studied in the state of Mato Grosso, which is a traditional beef exporter. The state was divided into four regions. In each region, properties were selected randomly. A predetermined random number of animals were chosen from these properties, and comparative cervical tuberculin tests were conducted. In total, 28,878 animals from 1,133 properties underwent examination. The animals with inconclusive results were reexamined with the same diagnostic procedure in a minimal interval of 60 days. In each sampled property, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted to identify possible risk factors for the disease. In the state, the prevalence of infected herds and animals was 1. 24% [0.06; 0.90] in the breeding region, respectively. It was observed that the condition of the herds infected with bovine tuberculosis was associated with milk production, European or mestizo breeds, degree of sophistication in the production mode, and herd size of up to 486 animals. Therefore, the implementation of a monitoring system for detection and elimination of the residual infected herds along with incorporation of risk-based monitoring elements is the best strategy for the state. Key words: Brazil. Bovine tuberculosis. Mato Grosso. Prevalence. Risk factors. ResumoEm 2009, a situação epidemiológica da tuberculose bovina foi estudada no Estado de Mato Grosso, tradicional exportador de carne. O Estado foi estratificado em quatro regiões. Em cada região, propriedades foram sorteadas aleatoriamente e, dentro dessas, escolheu-se de forma também aleatória um número pré-estabelecido de animais, os quais foram submetidos ao teste tuberculínico Cervical [0,06; 0,90] na região cria. Verificou-se que a condição do foco de tuberculose bovina está associada à produção de leite, com raças europeias ou mestiças, com algum grau de sofisticação no modo de produção e em rebanhos com até 486 animais. Assim, a implementação de um sistema de vigilância para detecção e saneamento dos focos residuais constitui a melhor estratégia para o Estado. Palavras-chave: Brasil. Fatores de risco. Mato Grosso. Prevalência. Tuberculose bovina.

Communities are sets of nodes that are related in an important way, most likely sharing common properties and/or playing similar roles within a network. Unraveling a network structure, and hence the trade preferences and pathways, could be useful to a researcher or a decision maker. We implemented a community detection algorithm to find livestock communities, which is consistent with the definition of a livestock production zone, assuming that a community is a group of farm premises in which an animal is more likely to stay during its lifetime than expected by chance. We applied this algorithm to the network of animal movements within the state of Mato Grosso for 2007. This database holds information concerning 87,899 premises and 521,431 movements throughout the year, totaling 15,844,779 animals moved. The community detection algorithm achieved a network partition that shows a clear geographical and commercial pattern, two crucial features for preventive veterinary medicine applications; this algorithm provides also a meaningful interpretation to trade networks where links emerge based on trader node choices.

The aims of the present study were to compare centrality and other measures of bovine movement networks in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, in 2007, by examination of the positive and negative herds identified in the brucellosis survey conducted in 2003. In addition, we aimed to examine the association between herd size (measured by the number of females older than 24 months, denoted FEM24+) and animal trade between herds. We found a statistical association between brucellosis occurrence and both the total degree (number of traded animals) and out-degree (for the number of animals sold and the number of neighboring herds). This finding suggests that positive herds in the 2003 survey were trading (particularly selling) more frequently in 2007 than negative herds, thereby presumably increasing the risk of disease spread. Statistical differences observed (p-values) in the network of movements for reproduction purposes were more significant than those observed in other networks for average herd size; degrees of animals, batches, and neighbors; outdegree of neighbors; and betweenness. We found positive associations (p < 0.001) between the following variables: number of traded animals and the FEM24+ herd size; FEM24+ herd size and FEM24+ herd size of neighbors within the network of cattle movement; FEM24+ herd size of neighbors and number of traded animals; and weighted degree (animals) of neighbors and degree (animals) of the herd of origin. A comparison of positive and negative herds stratified by herd size (≤ 10 FEM24+; and > 50 FEM24+), within the network of movements for reproduction purposes, revealed significant differences (p < 0.05) in the > 50 FEM24+ category only, for average herd size, total degree (animals, batches, and neighbors), outdegree (animals, batches, and neighbors), and outcloseness. Logistic regression analysis, in which average herd size and degree (animals) were both factors, showed that a tenfold increase in herd size and the number of animals traded would lead to an increased chance of a herd being positive by 41% (OR = 1.41 [1.01; 1.99]) and 39% (OR = 1.39 [1.05; 1.85]), respectively. We concluded that the presence of bovine brucellosis is associated with a larger herd size, which is consistent with other reports. We also found an association between the increased trade of bovines and the presence of bovine brucellosis. Furthermore, an association was noted between herd size and animal trade, both of which could contribute to the spread of brucellosis. ResumoO objetivo do presente estudo foi comparar medidas de centralidade e outras medidas da rede de trânsito bovino no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil, em 2007, pela análise de rebanhos positivos e negativos identificados no levantamento de brucelose realizado em 2003. Além disso, examinamos a associação entre tamanho de rebanho (medido pelo número de fêmeas acima de 24 meses, denotado FEM24+) e o comércio animal entre rebanhos. Foi observada uma associação estatística entre brucelose e tanto o grau total (número de animais comerci...

Muitos mistérios tem a matemática, Disciplina da lógica estatística: De um lado, a imprecisão probabilística; Do outro, a exatidão da lei quadrática. Confusa em teoria como em prática, Apesar da esquemática logística. Aos filósofos, sempre será mística; Aos calculistas, menos problemática. Integra as derivadas da retórica, Numa exponencial matriz simétrica Da inequação em pi, trigonométrica. A função logarítmica, de histórica, Cria um sistema métrico onde, eufórica, A mente humana vai ficando elétrica.

No abstract

In the southern region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic started in

The analysis of animal movement patterns may help identify farm premises with a potentially high risk of infectious disease introduction. Farm herd sizes and bovine movement data from 2007 in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, were analyzed. There are three different biomes in Mato Grosso: the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal. The analysis of the animal trade between and within biomes would enable characterization of the connections between the biomes and the intensity of the internal trade within each biome. We conducted the following analyses: 1) the concentration of cattle on farm premises in the state and in each biome, 2) the number and relative frequency of cattle moved between biomes, and 3) the most frequent purposes for cattle movements. Twenty percent (20%) of the farm premises had 81.15% of the herd population. Those premises may be important not only for the spread of infectious diseases, but also for the implementation of surveillance and control strategies. Most of the cattle movement was intrastate (97.1%), and internal movements within each biome were predominant (88.6%). A high percentage of movement from the Pantanal was to the Cerrado (48.6%), the biome that received the most cattle for slaughter, fattening and reproduction (62.4%, 56.8%, and 49.1% of all movements for slaughter, fattening, and reproduction, respectively). The primary purposes for cattle trade were fattening (43.5%), slaughter (31.5%), and reproduction (22.7%). Presumably, movements for slaughter has a low risk of disease spread. In contrast, movements for fattening and reproduction purposes (66.2% of all movements) may contribute to an increased risk of the spread of infectious diseases.