An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity

Summary1. It is often assumed that there is a trade-off between maternal provisioning and dispersal capacity, leading small-seeded species to disperse further than large-seeded species. However, this relationship between dispersal distance and seed mass has only been quantified for species from particular sites or with particular dispersal syndromes. 2. We provided the first large-scale, cross-species quantification of the correlations between dispersal distance and both seed mass and plant height. Seed mass was positively related to mean dispersal distance, with a 100-fold increase in seed mass being associated with a 4.5-fold increase in mean dispersal distance (R 2 = 0.16; n = 210 species; P < 0.001). However, plant height had substantially stronger explanatory power than did seed mass, and we found a 5-fold increase in height was associated with a 4.6-fold increase in mean dispersal distance (R 2 = 0.54; n = 211 species; P < 0.001). 3. Once plant height was accounted for, we found that small-seeded species dispersed further than did large-seeded species (R 2 = 0.54; n = 181 species; slope = )0.130; P < 0.001); however, seed mass only added 2% to the R 2 of the model. Within dispersal syndromes, tall species dispersed further than did short species, while seed mass had little influence on dispersal distance. 4. Synthesis. These findings enhance our understanding of plant life-history strategies and improve our ability to predict which species are best at colonizing new environments.

Australian floodplain wetlands are sites of high biodiversity that depend on flows from rivers. Dams, diversions and river management have reduced flooding to these wetlands, altering their ecology, and causing the death or poor health of aquatic biota. Four floodplain wetlands (Barmah‐Millewa Forest and Moira Marshes, Chowilla floodplain, Macquarie Marshes, Gwydir wetlands) illustrate these effects with successional changes in aquatic vegetation, reduced vegetation health, declining numbers of water‐birds and nesting, and declining native fish and invertebrate populations. These effects are likely to be widespread as Australia has at least 446 large dams (>10 m crest height) storing 8.8 × 107 ML (106 L) of water, much of which is diverted upstream of floodplain wetlands. More than 50% of floodplain wetlands on developed rivers may no longer flood. Of all of the river basins in Australia, the Murray‐Darling Basin is most affected with dams which can store 103% of annual runoff and 87% of divertible water extracted (1983–84 data). Some floodplain wetlands are now permanent storages. This has changed their biota from one tolerant of a variable flooding regime, to one that withstands permanent flooding. Plans exist to build dams to divert water from many rivers, mainly for irrigation. These plans seldom adequately model subsequent ecological and hydrological impacts to floodplain wetlands. To avoid further loss of wetlands, an improved understanding of the interaction between river flows and floodplain ecology, and investigations into ecological impacts of management practices, is essential.

/ The demand for water to support irrigated agriculture has led to the demise of wetlands and their associated wildlife for decades. This thirst for water is so pervasive that many wetlands considered to be hemispheric reserves for waterbirds have been heavily affected; for example, the California and Nevada wetlands in North America, the Macquarie Marshes in Australia, and the Aral Sea in central Asia. These and other major wetlands have lost most of their historic supplies of water and some have also experienced serious impacts from contaminated subsurface irrigation drainage. Now mere shadows of what they once were in terms of biodiversity and wildlife production, many of the so-called "wetlands of international importance" are no longer the key conservation strongholds they were in the past. The conflict between irrigated agriculture and wildlife conservation has reached a critical point on a global scale. Not only has local wildlife suffered, including the extinction of highly insular species, but a ripple effect has impacted migratory birds worldwide. Human societies reliant on wetlands for their livelihoods are also bearing the cost. Ironically, most of the degradation of these key wetlands occurred during a period of time when public environmental awareness and scientific assertion of the need for wildlife conservation was at an all-time high. However, designation of certain wetlands as "reserves for wildlife" by international review boards has not slowed their continued degradation. To reverse this trend, land and water managers and policy makers must assess the true economic costs of wetland loss and, depending on the outcome of the assessment, use the information as a basis for establishing legally enforceable water rights that protect wetlands from agricultural development.