Abstract. Sin Nombre virus (SNV), hosted by the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), is the primary etiologic agent of Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North America. To improve our understanding of the epidemiology of HPS in the western United States, we conducted studies of population dynamics and SNV antibody prevalence in deer mouse populations for 6 years on 12 mark-recapture grids in Montana. Monthly numbers of deer mice ranged from zero to over 170 on 1-hectare grids. SNV antibody prevalence was higher than observed in studies in other parts of the United States, averaging 13% (0% to 50%), and peaking in May or June each year. Antibody-positive mice were older (heavier) (78% of positives were adults versus 52% of negatives) and more likely to be males (61% of positives versus 53.4% of negatives). A higher proportion of antibody-positive deer mice of all age-mass classes had scars than did antibody-negative mice. Month-to-month survivorship of antibody-positive adult mice was similar to that of antibody-negative mice, but survival of young antibody-positive deer mice was lower than antibody-negative deer mice. This is the first study to clearly suggest a detrimental effect of SNV infection on deer mice.

Summary1. Since Sin Nombre virus was discovered in the U.S. in 1993, longitudinal studies of the rodent reservoir host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) have demonstrated a qualitative correlation among mouse population dynamics and risk of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, indicating the importance of understanding deer mouse population dynamics for evaluating risk of HPS. 2. Using capture-mark-recapture statistical methods on a 15-year data set from Montana, we estimated deer mouse survival, maturation and recruitment rates and tested the relative importance of seasonality, population density and local climate in explaining temporal variation in deer mouse demography. 3. From these estimates, we designed a population model to simulate deer mouse population dynamics given climatic variables and compared the model to observed patterns. 4. Month, precipitation 5 months previously, temperature 5 months previously and to a lesser extent precipitation and temperature in the current month, were important in determining deer mouse survival. Month, the sum of precipitation over the last 4 months, and the sum of the temperature over the last 4 months were important in determining recruitment rates. Survival was more important in determining the growth rate of the population than recruitment. 5. While climatic drivers appear to have a complex influence on dynamics, our forecasts were good. Our quantitative model may allow public health officials to better predict increased human risk from basic climatic data.

Abstract. Most human cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome are acquired in the peridomestic environment, yet studies of the ecology and infection dynamics in the reservoir host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), have focused on sylvan populations. We describe a 2.5-year study of hantavirus infection in rodents associated with peridomestic habitats in west central Montana. Antibodies reactive with Sin Nombre virus (SNV) were found in five species. Overall SNV antibody prevalence was highest among deer mice (25% of individuals tested). As has been demonstrated for sylvan populations, the antibody-positive component of the deer mouse population consisted of a higher proportion of adults and males. However, the prevalence of antibodies to SNV was higher in this study than has been reported in most sylvan studies. The average monthly proportion of deer mouse blood samples with antibodies to SNV ranged from approximately 20% to 25% and was highest in the late spring/early summer. The higher SNV antibody prevalence in peridomestic compared with sylvan settings may be related to behavioral differences and/or potentially longer survival of the virus deposited inside buildings. Peridomestic settings presented higher concentrations of virus and may present a higher risk of human infection than do sylvan settings.

ABSTRACT:We used long-term data collected for up to 10 yr (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004) at 23 trapping arrays (i.e., webs and grids) in Arizona, Colorado, Montana, and New Mexico to examine demographic factors known or suspected to be associated with risk of infection with Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in its natural host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). Gender, age (mass), wounds or scars, season, and local relative population densities were statistically associated with the period prevalence of antibody (used as a marker of infection) to SNV in host populations. Nevertheless, antibody prevalence and some of the risk factors associated with antibody prevalence, such as relative population density, gender bias, and prevalence of wounding, varied significantly among sites and even between nearby trapping arrays at a single site. This suggests that local micrositespecific differences play an important role in determining relative risk of infection by SNV in rodents and, consequently, in humans. Deer mouse relative population density varied among sites and was positively and statistically associated with infection prevalence, an association that researchers conducting shorter-term studies failed to demonstrate. Both wounding and antibody prevalence increased with mass class in both males and females; this increase was much more pronounced in males than in females and wounding was more frequent in adult males than in adult females. Prevalence of wounding was greatest among seropositive deer mice, regardless of mass class, but many deer mice without detectable wounds or scars eventually became infected. Many of these patterns, which will be useful in the development of predictive models of disease risk to humans, were only detected through the application of data collected over a long (10-yr) period and with abundant replication.

ABSTRACT:Sin Nombre virus (SNV), hosted by the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), is the principal cause of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in North America. To improve our understanding of factors that contribute to the occurrence of HPS, we conducted an extensive field study of the characteristics of newly infected (as determined by recent acquisition of antibody) deer mice and the temporal pattern of antibody acquisition (seroconversion) from 1994 through 2004 in Montana, USA. We sampled 6,584 individual deer mice, of which 2,747 were captured over multiple trapping periods. Among these 2,747 deer mice, we detected 171 instances of seroconversion. There was no relationship between seroconversion and the acquisition of scars. However, recently infected Montana deer mice were more likely to be older, more likely to be males, and more likely to be in breeding condition. In addition, recently infected male deer mice gained less weight over the 1-mo period following seroconversion than did those that did not acquire antibody, suggesting that SNV infection may have negatively impacted the health of infected rodents. Incidence was highly variable among years, and timing of infections was primarily associated with the breeding season (generally early spring through late fall).

Infections with hantaviruses in the natural host rodent may result in persistent, asymptomatic infections involving shedding of virus into the environment. Laboratory studies have partially characterized the acute and persistent infection by Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in its natural host, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus). However, these studies have posed questions that may best be addressed using longitudinal studies involving sequential sampling of individual wild-caught, naturally infected mice. Using enzyme immunoassay and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of monthly blood samples, we followed the infection status of deer mice in a mark-recapture study in Montana for 2 yr. Only six of 907 samples without IgG antibody to SNV contained detectable SNV RNA, suggesting that there is a very brief period of viremia before the host develops detectable antibody. The simultaneous presence of both antibody and viral RNA in blood was detected in consecutive monthly samples for as long as 3 mo. However, chronic infection was typified by alternating characteristics of PCR positivity and PCR negativity. Two possible interpretations of these results are that 1) viral RNA may be consistently present in the blood of chronically infected deer mouse, but that viral RNA is near the limits of PCR detectability or 2) SNV RNA sporadically appears in blood as a consequence of unknown physiological events. The occurrence of seasonal patterns in the proportion of samples that contains antibody and that also contained SNV RNA demonstrated a temporal association between recent infection (antibody acquisition) and presence of viral RNA in blood.

American hantaviruses cause a severe respiratory disease known as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). In the United States, Sin Nombre virus (SNV), carried by the deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus), is the etiologic agent in the majority of HPS cases. The relationship between deer mouse population density and SNV infection prevalence in deer mice is poorly understood. Our purpose was to clarify this relationship by demonstrating the existence of delayed-density-dependent prevalence of SNV infection in populations of wild deer mice. We also explored the relationship between SNV infection in deer mouse populations and the incidence of human HPS. The study population was 3,616 deer mice captured on 10 mark-recapture grids in Montana during May and September, 1994-2004. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we found a strong association between deer mouse population density in fall (September) and SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice the following spring (May). Other characteristics associated with SNV infection in deer mice in spring were: (1) presence of at least one infected deer mouse in the population the previous fall, (2) male gender, (3) adult age class, (4) presence of scars, (5) grassland and logged habitats, and (6) elevations below 1,300 m. There was a strong association between concurrently measured SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice and probable exposure of human HPS cases during the same time period. Human cases were more likely to occur during seasons when SNV antibody prevalence was at least 10% in deer mouse populations. These findings suggest that fall rodent population parameters could be used to help guide prevention efforts the following spring.

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