Extreme variability of the winter-and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond 5 days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecast skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal time-scales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

Many explosive terrestrial volcanic eruptions are accompanied by lightning and other atmospheric electrical phenomena. The plumes produced generate large perturbations in the surface atmospheric electric potential gradient and high charge densities have been measured on falling volcanic ash particles. The complex nature of volcanic plumes (which contain gases, solid particles, and liquid drops) provides several possible charging mechanisms. For plumes rich in solid silicate particles, fractoemission (the ejection of ions and atomic particles during fracture events) is probably the dominant source of charge generation. In other plumes, such as those created when lava enters the sea, different mechanisms, such as boiling, may be important. Further charging mechanisms may also subsequently operate, downwind of the vent. Other solar system bodies also show evidence for volcanism, with activity ongoing on Io. Consequently, volcanic electrification under different planetary scenarios (on Venus, Mars, Io, Moon, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione and Triton) is also discussed.

During the descent into the recent 'exceptionally' low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that 'top-down' solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the 'bottom-up' effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.

Responses in surface winds to solar eclipses have an almost mystical status but are difficult to detect in observations because of their transient nature. High spatial resolution (approx. 1.5 km grid) meteorological models now provide a new technique for their investigation. Measurements from the southern UK meteorological network during the 11 August 1999 total solar eclipse are compared with a high-resolution model ignorant of the lunar shadow's influence. Differences between the model output and measurements at the eclipse time show transient eclipse zone temperature decreases of up to 3• C, which also depressed the day's maximum temperature compared with the model prediction. Coherent responses in temperature, and wind speed and direction measurements are detected in the inland cloud-free region (from 51• to 52• N and −2 • to 0 • E). A mean regional wind speed decrease of 0.7 m s −1 during the maximum eclipse hour is apparent with a mean anticlockwise wind direction change of 17• ; no such changes occurred in the model output. Such regional circulation changes are consistent with Clayton's 1901 cold-cored eclipse cyclone hypothesis, which may be related to the anecdotal 'eclipse wind'.

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